Disney Lorcana Market Watch: Pre-DLC Toronto

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing. Note that prices on foil staple cards are very high (for example, you can probably get close to $100 for a Beast - Tragic Hero!).
4. As there are now four sets for Disney Lorcana, I will be taking a look at the market as a whole, not just cards per set, and only the cards that rose (not fell) and my predictions for the next week.
5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

News of the Week Affecting Lorcana Finance

Shimmering Skies continues to sell at a rapid rate. This is mainly due to the big box release not even being available yet, and online pre-orders cannot be filled until next week. That being said, we have not had enough time go by to see a full week's worth of growth or decline in the initial prices for Shimmering Skies, so today's Market Watch will just focus on the first four sets. Do not fret, I am sure next week will be a full focus on the latest and greatest Lorcana set!

We are already seeing a lot of events using Shimmering Skies with high attendance figures. Of course, these events are generally dominated by the decks without a lot of new cards in them, but I expect that to change in the coming weeks.

DLC Toronto is this weekend, but due to the "three week release rule" Shimmering Skies will only be legal in side events. Therefore, the results of this event may have a temporary bump for some cards that are in top performing decks, unless they can carry over to the new format, be careful in your speculation on how these decks perform.

If you need a history lesson in this phenomenon, see DLC Atlanta and the rise in some cards that are still seeing play (like Perdita - Devoted Mother) and some that have not been sleeved since (cough:Fairy Godmother - Mystic Armorer)

The best place to glean information from DLC Toronto will be from the Sunday side events, as Shimmering Skies will be legal. I would study those decklists, and act on them accordingly! Luckily for you, I will be on the ground in DLC Toronto, able to report on all the scoops next week!

Check out our Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Lorcana's Biggest Risers

Piglet - Pooh Pirate Captain

• Current Market Price: $4.84
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +49%

Amber Aggro seems to be testing very well in the early new metagame, and this Pirate is a key cog in both the deck itself and its natural nemesis in Amber-Steel. He is already seeing a serious uptick in play and will continue to be a force. Playing him on turn two after a turn one Daisy Duck - Donald's Date represents seven lore by turn three: two quests by Daisy, one by a pumped up Piglet! I expect him to be a force in this new metagame, so do not sleep on him, especially the special Illumineer's Quest version!

The Muses - Proclaimers of Heroes

• Current Market Price: $0.59
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +45.8%

Discard players were looking for the replacement for their Bucky lists and seem to have found it with Amber-Emerald discard control. The key card here is The Muses, with it playing double duty as a control element and helping you bounce your own card searchers like Ariel - Spectacular Singer to find more cards. I think this deck translates well to the new format, so I expect The Muses to be a $2 card in a month's time!

Here is an example of one Amber-Emerald discard control list:

Under The Sea

• Current Market Price: $0.50
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +36%

Right next to the Muses in those Amber-Emerald decks is Under The Sea, which was all the market rage this past week! You cannot find a playset of this card for less than $0.80 right now, and I expect it to have a strong showing in DLC Toronto. Not to mention that in Shimmering Skies, if aggro can keep its early lead, this song will be a key way of dealing with it out of Emerald.

Lilo - Making a Wish

• Current Market Price: $8.84
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +32.8%

If you read my pre-Shimmering Skies primer I mentioned Lilo as one of my cards to watch, because of her immediate on-color pairing with Daisy Duck. Lilo is the perfect one-drop companion to Dasiy in these aggro lists, and I can easily see her hitting the $10 mark during this meta!

We Don't Talk About Bruno

• Current Market Price: $1.33
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +32.3%

Rare week continues on the Market Watch! Amber-Emerald week continues on the Market Watch! I think that Emerald is shaping up to be a solid control shell in the new metagame as well, helped by the card draw engine that is Clarabelle - Light on Her Hooves. WdtaB is very good, no matter the shell, and even if you are not focusing on discard, it can act as a key removal piece.

Teeth and Ambitions

• Current Market Price: $1.52
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +30.9%

Ruby needs fast answers to the fast aggression, and while Teeth comes and goes in the metagame, maybe it is time that it came back! It is also a key piece in Amber-Ruby that is always looking for ways of self-damaging for value given the draw power of Rapunzel. Oh, Emerald is also getting in on the action, having a plethora of cards that want to damage or take out damaged characters. So if you do not want to rely on the Steel pairing, Teeth gives you a key way to interact in Ruby!

Cards to look out for in Lorcana

Elsa - Spirit of Winter

• Current Market Price: $9.01
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +16.4%

The queen has returned! Blurple seems to be seeing a lot of experimentation in early Shimmering Skies, and Elsa - The Fifth Spirit finally provides an amazing Shift target. I think if Ruby continues to decline in popularity (ie. less Maui) she can see even more play, branching off into any Amethyst list using the new Elsa to control the board.

Lyle Tiberius Rourke - Cunning Mercenary 

• Current Market Price: $0.23
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +8.7%

I keep mentioning Emerald as a possible more controlling shell in the next metagame, and one key piece of that can be Lyle. He allows you to turn your early characters into lore removal against the aggressive decks, and can cost those opponents key early turn advantages. If aggro stays on top, Lyle will be there to combat them!

Belle - Accomplished Mystic

• Current Market Price: $0.49
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +8.2%

She still needs a great Shift target, but this Floodborn Belle does give Amethyst a key tool in its toolbox in dealing with aggression. If Blue Fairy based aggro-control lists can see the light of day again, Belle can be a key mid-game play that will also draw you a card! I think she will see sporadic play in this metgame, and you cannot count out any decent costed Floodborn for its singer value as well!

Let It Go

• Current Market Price: $2.42
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +16.5%

The aggressive cards have already started spiking, so the decks that will rise to face them will take time to be sorted out. Since so many of them involve Sapphire, whether it is involves ramp or Floodborns, this effective Song should be in every one of those lists. You want to act now before the spike happens, as this card should show up in greater numbers as the metagame settles down.

Conclusion

Shimmering Skies is all the rage, and older cards are spiking in value to meet the demand of new archetypes. Keep an eye on the DLC Toronto side events, as the main events is already a dead format to all but the 1K plus competitors there (unfortunate rules). I will report back next week on what I am seeing on display at this first DLC with the new set, and the market will react as it always does: fast and furious!