Disney Lorcana Market Watch: Week of July 8

Each week, we will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell in price the most on the secondary market in Disney Lorcana.

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

  1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
  2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
  3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing. Note that prices on foil staple cards are very high (for example, you can probably get close to $100 for a Beast - Tragic Hero!).
  4. As there are now four sets for Disney Lorcana, I will be taking a look at the market as a whole, not just cards per set, and only the cards that rose (not fell) and my predictions for the next week.
  5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

News of the Week Affecting Lorcana Finance

What a week! Set Championships kicked off, DLC Bochum was held, and there were Amazon dumps of Into the Inklands! Let's start with Set Champs!

Obviously for a majority of the Lorcana community, the Set Championship season represents the pinnacle of their organized play. As someone who strives to travel to every DLC, I will admit that the hype surrounding Set Championships seemed to be a bit less for me personally, but I was clearly incorrect! I am seeing fantastic numbers of people showing up at their local Set Champs, with several selling out if space is limited! I already played in a 24-man that capped on Sunday (spoiler: I took home the Champion Mat) and many I have seen were over 50 players deep!

What does this mean for the prices on the prizes? Well, in a perfect world there would be more demand, as clearly there are more players in the game this season, but the problem is that this is the second enchanted Ursula - Sea Witch Queen and even though the art is much better, you cannot deny there are a plethora of some sort of this enchanted around. Also, the number of stores that can host events is greatly expanded this season, and with it being a month long, the try-hards that really want the playset, will have numerous chances to get them on their own. Therefore, I think there will be high sales velocity throughout the month, but the prices will go down throughout the month, and likely not have a lot of room to grow past July (unless this Ursula takes off in playability). I am also seeing a lot of "pringling" on the cards throughout their shipping from Ravensberger, so be on the look out for highly graded Ursulas! I actually think the playmat may have more staying power, as it is just a really nice item and there are more overall players vying for it (and less per event).

Oh also, stores were able to buy up to a case of each set this time around, less than last times. Many stores I talked to only took The First Chapter and Rise of the Floodborn, but they may take a slight hit for a few weeks also.

DLC Bochum was last week and I put the results below.

As you can see, Ruby-Amethyst and Emerald-Steel continue to dominate the metagame, with a Ruby-Amethyst mirror in the finals. I will have to go back and watch the coverage, because RA's worst matchup is typically Emerald Steel, but I am assuming ES did not draw its "nuttier" hands. Ruby-Sapphire and Sapphire-Steel continue to be big players and if you add them up you will see "ramp decks" in general being 28.6% of the field (with bad top 64 conversion rates though), so I expect those Sapphire cards to stay very relevant. Amber-Steel rounds out the rest of the "other" category (from a Pareto standpoint lol), still coming in at over 5%, but the Amber color is suffering at cracking the top tables overall. Singles prices will be highly affected by these results leading up to DLC Fort Worth in a few weeks.

Finally, earlier this week we saw Ravensberger sell Into the Inklands boxes directly on Amazon for under $100! Those deals are now gone, but if you chose to get them at those reduced prices (slightly above LGS cost) then you got a bargain! No one should panic over that brief "sale" that is already sold out: we know the demand for The First Chapter (and early Rise of the Floodborn) was much higher than supply, so when they had the opportunity to put in larger print orders, they did so. The prices most affected by this will be the Enchanteds, as there is a smaller market, but the amount of powerful cards in that set will keep normal card prices higher (but you will see short term dips). Playable foils may also take a dip as well. Overall, this is not a big deal, and the "outside opinions" of it from the general TCG finance community who saw Lorcana as a pump and dump are stoking fears of a bear market that will not come to pass.

Floodborn boxes were only slightly discounted at $115 (over cost) but to the retail community who still wanted that set, it was a slight, fast bargain.

Trust me, go to a DLC and see how popular Lorcana is and sells; go to a Set Championship and see the numbers tower over the other games in the area. Nothing to worry about on my end because one set in the past was over printed. Ravensberger will figure out their sweet spot for printing and in time it will all level out.

Whew, that was a lot, may have less time to go over individual cards this week, but lots of macro data to take a look at!

Check out our Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Lorcana's Biggest Risers

Flynn Rider - His Own Biggest Fan

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  • Current Market Price: $1.72
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +39%

Ever since winning in Chicago, iterations of Emerald-Steel have shifted their main win condition (besides giving your opponents no options through discard) to this Flynn Rider fiend! You actually cannot even find a playset from one verified seller for under $3.20 on TCG Player, so realistically that market price from where you would actually want to save on shipping and handling fees, should be close to double that price. Rise continues to be a polarizing set, value wise, so it is good to see a rare hitting premium status.

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Ariel - Treasure Collector

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  • Current Market Price: $1.17
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +14.5%

When you look at the top movers the last seven days, you are going to see a lot of bulk prices rising in high percentages due to just a rising tide and hype. You need to dig deeper to find the actual market movers, and this version of Ariel fits that bill. You will not find more than one from a verified seller until you get close to $2 (from some weirdly named seller called The Forbidden Mountain, man who is that guy!?) so prices are on the rise. Sapphire-Steel is looking for its win condition, and this Ariel can be one..supported by some others on this list.

Tamatoa - So Shiny!

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  • Current Market Price: $7.99
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +10.9%

Gee another Sapphire win condition! Tamatoa remains the win condition of choice, although he does have a bigger target on his back nowadays. You want a ramp target to end games, and this Crab gets you value as well as finishing them off!

Tinker Bell - Giant Fairy

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  • Current Market Price: $11.31
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +12.9%

My queen has returned! My favorite card in Disney Lorcana is finally returning to her glory (ok she is not going to hit August's $35 price tag any time soon..)! You cannot find a verified playset for under $14 and if she continues to be a force in any Steel list, she can only go up in value as the best Super Rare (in existence?). Tink does it all in Emerald-Steel, Sapphire-Steel, Amethyst-Steel, and may even find a home in Amber-Steel (welcome back!). If she sees play that widely, her prices will go wider as well.

Sisu - Emboldened Warrior

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  • Current Market Price: $5.09
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +10.8%

The main way that Ruby-Amethyst wins games is through tempo threats that are hard to deal with and gaining lore outside of questing. Sisu allows both of those to occur, with a high lore stat herself and a massive strength stat (variably) to pair with Flynn Rider - Frenemy. Sisu is arguably the best three drop in the game (along with Ariel - Spectacular Singer and Madam Mim - Fox, any more?) and is a key cog in multiple high level meta decks.

Cards to look out for in Lorcana

Belle - Strange but Special

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  • Current Market Price: $23.31
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +4.3%

I wanted to include one Legendary on here, so why not choose another Sapphire win condition? I actually think Belle has a lot of room for growth, as you may start to see more copies of her pop up in deck lists as a win condition for Sapphire-Steel. Her first ability is often ignored, but it may be key if more of her start to show up. You really cannot find a playset for less than $26, so if she does become a wider staple, her price will rise.

Be King Undisputed

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  • Current Market Price: $1.15
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -14.8%

Two Ruby-Amethyst in the Bochum finals; huge presence at Set Champs. This card is not $1 or even $2 rare. If you can find them for under $3 at this point I would highly consider picking them up.

Flynn Rider - Frenemy

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  • Current Market Price: $5.67
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +3.7%

I have mentioned this card so often above I cannot actually believe it is not in the top section! This is right now an $8 card easily and while I am not sure it can hit the $10 mark, if you can find it for the above market price, i would act. Once the full deck spread from Bochum gets released I expect him to rise more!

Ariel - Spectacular Singer

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  • Current Market Price: $3.68
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +7.1%

You can find playsets for about $1 more, but with new sets come new songs, and with new songs, comes various versions of Ariel. This one remains the staple for Amber decks and if there is room for song decks to take off again (making up the small percentage of the meta now), new players to that genre will need her as a playset!

Morph - Space Goo

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  • Current Market Price: $1.59
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +16.4%

Similar to Ariel, a new set brings new potential! We have already seen a Ratigan Floodborn, there are sure to be others that may not have amazing "smaller versions" to Shift onto: that is where Morph comes into play! If Emerald can be successful with other color combinations besides the Squirrel, chances are Morph will be leading the charge!

Conclusion

What a week! Set Champs are in full swing and the hype is real! DLC Fort Worth is in a few weeks, man this month is packed! Expect the market to react and before you know it, we will have a whole new set to absorb!

AUStarwars
AUStarwars

Scott Landis is a 30-year Trading Card Game professional, and former writer for the World of Warcraft TCG and Transformers TCG among others.  Currently he is an owner of The Forbidden Mountain, a Lorcana YouTube Page and TCG player Store. You can follow them on YouTube and please use their TCGplayer Store (same cost as the marketplace). You can also find them on Facebook and Twitter.

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