Disney Lorcana Market Watch: Week of July 8

Table of Contents

News of the Week Affecting Lorcana Finance
Lorcana's Biggest Risers
- Flynn Rider - His Own Biggest Fan
Ariel - Treasure Collector
Tamatoa - So Shiny!
- Tinker Bell - Giant Fairy
Sisu - Emboldened Warrior
Cards to look out for in Lorcana
Belle - Strange but Special
Be King Undisputed
Flynn Rider - Frenemy
Ariel - Spectacular Singer
Morph - Space Goo
Conclusion

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
I am looking at only non-foil pricing. Note that prices on foil staple cards are very high (for example, you can probably get close to $100 for a Beast - Tragic Hero!).
As there are now four sets for Disney Lorcana, I will be taking a look at the market as a whole, not just cards per set, and only the cards that rose (not fell) and my predictions for the next week.
This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

News of the Week Affecting Lorcana Finance

What a week! Set Championships kicked off, DLC Bochum was held, and there were Amazon dumps of Into the Inklands! Let's start with Set Champs!

Obviously for a majority of the Lorcana community, the Set Championship season represents the pinnacle of their organized play. As someone who strives to travel to every DLC, I will admit that the hype surrounding Set Championships seemed to be a bit less for me personally, but I was clearly incorrect! I am seeing fantastic numbers of people showing up at their local Set Champs, with several selling out if space is limited! I already played in a 24-man that capped on Sunday (spoiler: I took home the Champion Mat) and many I have seen were over 50 players deep!

What does this mean for the prices on the prizes? Well, in a perfect world there would be more demand, as clearly there are more players in the game this season, but the problem is that this is the second enchanted Ursula - Sea Witch Queen and even though the art is much better, you cannot deny there are a plethora of some sort of this enchanted around. Also, the number of stores that can host events is greatly expanded this season, and with it being a month long, the try-hards that really want the playset, will have numerous chances to get them on their own. Therefore, I think there will be high sales velocity throughout the month, but the prices will go down throughout the month, and likely not have a lot of room to grow past July (unless this Ursula takes off in playability). I am also seeing a lot of "pringling" on the cards throughout their shipping from Ravensberger, so be on the look out for highly graded Ursulas! I actually think the playmat may have more staying power, as it is just a really nice item and there are more overall players vying for it (and less per event).

Oh also, stores were able to buy up to a case of each set this time around, less than last times. Many stores I talked to only took The First Chapter and Rise of the Floodborn, but they may take a slight hit for a few weeks also.

DLC Bochum was last week and I put the results below.

As you can see, Ruby-Amethyst and Emerald-Steel continue to dominate the metagame, with a Ruby-Amethyst mirror in the finals. I will have to go back and watch the coverage, because RA's worst matchup is typically Emerald Steel, but I am assuming ES did not draw its "nuttier" hands. Ruby-Sapphire and Sapphire-Steel continue to be big players and if you add them up you will see "ramp decks" in general being 28.6% of the field (with bad top 64 conversion rates though), so I expect those Sapphire cards to stay very relevant. Amber-Steel rounds out the rest of the "other" category (from a Pareto standpoint lol), still coming in at over 5%, but the Amber color is suffering at cracking the top tables overall. Singles prices will be highly affected by these results leading up to DLC Fort Worth in a few weeks.

Finally, earlier this week we saw Ravensberger sell Into the Inklands boxes directly on Amazon for under $100! Those deals are now gone, but if you chose to get them at those reduced prices (slightly above LGS cost) then you got a bargain! No one should panic over that brief "sale" that is already sold out: we know the demand for The First Chapter (and early Rise of the Floodborn) was much higher than supply, so when they had the opportunity to put in larger print orders, they did so. The prices most affected by this will be the Enchanteds, as there is a smaller market, but the amount of powerful cards in that set will keep normal card prices higher (but you will see short term dips). Playable foils may also take a dip as well. Overall, this is not a big deal, and the "outside opinions" of it from the general TCG finance community who saw Lorcana as a pump and dump are stoking fears of a bear market that will not come to pass.

Floodborn boxes were only slightly discounted at $115 (over cost) but to the retail community who still wanted that set, it was a slight, fast bargain.

Trust me, go to a DLC and see how popular Lorcana is and sells; go to a Set Championship and see the numbers tower over the other games in the area. Nothing to worry about on my end because one set in the past was over printed. Ravensberger will figure out their sweet spot for printing and in time it will all level out.

Whew, that was a lot, may have less time to go over individual cards this week, but lots of macro data to take a look at!

Check out our Disney Lorcana Prices section!