Disney Lorcana Market Watch: Week of May 6

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
4. Prices for the two most recently released sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the supply increases with reprints.  Both big box stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and local game stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

News of the Week Affecting Lorcana Finance

This week is similar to last week, as the vast majority of Lorcana players are finished with their major competitive event for this season: Set Championships. This, combined with a new set dropping in two weeks, causes prices on the past few sets to be relatively flat. Prices continue to be low as a wave of Lorcana entered the market thought Set Championships, including the highly desirable The First Chapter.

Set reveals for Ursula's Return are at a fevered pitch, honestly it is hard to find and source them all on a daily basis! When any new set is dropping the old cards do one of two things: people speculate on cards to buy and sell immediately, and the rest of the market slows down until release.

Set 4: Ursula’s Return Spoilers

The first Challenge events are at the end of this month, but since they are still using the Into the Inklands metagame, the market has not overall been affected by them. I assume the market for Ursula's Return will be very hot considering the Challenge in Chicago is the first major event where this set is legal, but that is not for a few weeks.

Check out our Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in The First Chapter

Ursula - Power Hungry

• Current Market Price: $4.02
• 7 Day Percentage Change: 10.7%

I think the rise in price for this card is all about Hades - Foul Player. I think players are dreaming of turning an Ursula - Deceiver into this Ursula - Power Hungry after playing the new Emerald Hades. I do not see it, as this Ursula is still easily taken out by Madame Medusa - The Boss but you do gain "some" immediate value from her.

Biggest Price Drop from The First Chapter

Kuzco - Temperamental Emperor

• Current Market Price: $0.56
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -67.9%

I am an OG hater on this card, and ever since the printing of Madam Mim - Fox this card has seen zero play. It is funny to remember when this card was over $20, but ever since the reprints from Set Championships the "bad cards" that once had value in this set continue to plummet in price as new buyers enter the market and tank values.

Cards to look out for in The First Chapter

Mickey Mouse - Wayward Sorcerer

• Current Market Price: $0.77
• 7 Day Percentage Change: 1.3%

It seems like I mention him at the start of each new set reveals, but I really believe the Broom deck is going to be a thing in the next metagame. Yen Sid - Powerful Sorcerer is a powerful card, especially if we see a one cost Broom enter the set to combo with him. This Mickey may be replaced by the new Mickey - Playful Sorcerer, but I think Wayward Sorcerer will still be a key cog in the wheel of that deck, since replaying those Brooms will have such increased value. Take a look at Foils and Enchanteds as well!

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in Rise of the Floodborn

Scar - Vicious Cheater

• Current Market Price: $13.93
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +24.8%

Loyal readers of this column should have rode this one to the bank! Scar is proving to be a key piece in Ruby control decks, both Ruby Sapphire and some Ruby Amethyst builds. His resistance to both The Bare Necessities and Ursula - Deceiver make him a great backup, or even primary, Be Prepared. With the new set having numerous "challenging matters" card, I think Scar is poised to stay on top.

Biggest Price Drop from Rise of the Floodborn

Flynn Rider - His Own Biggest Fan

• Current Market Price: $0.47
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -46.8%

This card has actually seen an uptick in play recently. Maybe because we are not seeing any Flynn's next set the excitement has died down? I think this card may see a resurgence in price, and I think this massive downtick is a good time to be buying. His sales velocity is high, I can never keep him in stock so if you find him this cheap (under $0.50) I would be a buyer!

Cards to look out for in Rise of the Floodborn

Chief Bogo - Respected Officer

• Current Market Price: $0.21
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +4.8%

First off, he combos with all of the alternate costed Shift cards to help make up for some of the lost value from having to discard cards. Second, he forms the basis of a two-card, one-sided Be Prepared with the new Floodborn Prince Phillip. If decks can find room for the uninkable nature of Bogo, he may finally start to see some play.

Ursula’s Return Card Reveals: New Shift mechanic revealed

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in Into the Inklands

Milo Thatch - King of Atlantis

• Current Market Price: $2.44
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +31.1%

The same write up for Ursula - Power Hungry applies here: combo with the new Hades - Foul Player. The difference here is that it is all completely in Emerald and Milo's effect on the board can be more devastating on turn 5. The same downsides exist (weak to Madame Medusa), but you may be able to swing the board into a position where she is too little, too late with Milo. He is simply too cheap to not rise in price if he sees any play!

Biggest Price Drop from Into the Inklands

Helga Sinclair - Femme Fatale

• Current Market Price: $0.15
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -106.7%

This card is low in price to begin with, but I was just so astounded by it losing so much of its value I just had to mention it. It really is a shame how bad this card has turned out to be, but it is really a case study in "Effects when you enter play >>>>>>> Effects when you Quest."

Cards to look out for in Into the Inklands

Lyle Tiberius Rourke - Cunning Mercenary

• Current Market Price: $0.29
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +13.8%

More than other cards on this list, I think Lyle has the potential to rise in the short term as well as long term! His ability to grant Reckless is proving to be excellent in Emerald mirror matches, as giving an opposing Cursed Merfolk - Ursula's Handiwork is devastating. You can set up board states where Lyle really shines, and I think he could be a sleeper hit as we close out the format!

Conclusion

It continues to be all about the Ursula's Return reveal season! Card sales velocity remains at a high, even if prices are coming down or staying stagnant. Later this week I will talk more about cards from the older sets I expect to rise and fall from the release of another 204 cards in the format...and hopefully even take a look at some of the supplementary product in this new set as well!