Disney Lorcana Finance Report – Market Watch January 14, 2024

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close $1 or more. Cards under $2 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $2 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. They actually see play).
3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
4. Prices for both sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the massive supply increases with reprints.  Both Big Box Stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and Local Game Stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

Check out our new Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Biggest Risers (Percentage Wise) in The First Chapter this week

1. Lilo - Making a Wish

• Current Market Price: $3.13
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +27.5%

Lilo - Making a Wish is an attempt to leverage aggressive strategies to sneak under the radar of the various removal options that Ruby/Amethyst and Amber/Steel present to the metagame. She is featured in updated versions of both Amber/Steel (with Tiana) and Amber/Emerald aggressive decks, oftentimes alongside cards that can protect her like Tiana - Celebrating Princess and even Mouse Armor.

You can either go bigger than the removal or below it, and Lilo will always represent a way to go under it. This card was once the highest price rare in the First Chapter, so as prices have good weeks (most Legendaries from The First Chapter were up this week), Lilo will likely rise with the Tides!

2. Fishbone Quill

• Current Market Price: $2.88
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +19.8%

Sapphire/Steel took second place in last week's large online event, and it survived a sea of Ruby/Amethyst to get there (before succumbing to it in the finals..). Here is the decklist from that event:

The card that made the deck work so efficiently was Fishbone Quill. Having played some games with this deck, and decks like it in the past, your ability to win games is directly affected by your ability to get a Quill active on turn three (and then keep it rolling with A Whole New World). Since the mulligan rules are so forgiving in Lorcana, this is more easily achieved. Being the centerpiece card of a top tier deck, often moves you up in price, and the Quill is no exception.

In fairness, the velocity on Fishbone Quill has always been huge: there is rarely a time I have any inventory in them beyond a few days, but recently the card's success is driving that velocity through the roof!

Biggest Price Drop from The First Chapter

Tamatoa - So Shiny!

• Current Market Price: $1.21
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -14.9%

Most cards that fall under my thresholds of "some value to start with" continued to drop in value this week (cards under $1). As we are rapidly reaching the third set "Into the Inklands" it is unlikely that mediocre cards can rise in value when the card pool will increase by another 204 cards very soon!

I cannot argue with math or facts, but I was pretty surprised to see Tamatoa - So Shiny! losing so much value in a week, considering it was also featured in that second place deck. I believe his drop was due to being overpriced before this week and less about his usage, and I would anticipate him going back up over the next few weeks.

Cards to look out for in The First Chapter

Stitch - Carefree Surfer

• Current Market Price: $11.71
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +9.8%

Stitch - Carefree Surfer has not lost a ton of value since the December reprints, comparatively. I am a big fan of Mufasa - Betrayed Leader currently to combat the threats from Ruby/Amethyst and Surfing Stitch is a staple in those lists. Unless we see improved card draw for the mid-game come from Amber, and what we are seeing now the "flood the board" Amber strategies will be improved, Stitch - Carefree Surfer should remain the go-to win condition for these types of decks.

Rapunzel - Gifted with Healing

• Current Market Price: $33.88
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +5.5%

Sometimes expensive cards can only go up in value after they have bottomed out. People are back on the Rapunzel - Gifted with Healing bandwagon, and she is showing up in more lists nowadays. Another staple to play in the Mufasa decks, players are finding that the card draw and healing that Rapunzel provides is becoming easier to proc, as challenges seem to happen more often with characters like LeFou - Instigator are seeing less play.

Biggest Risers (Percentage Wise) in Rise of the Floodborn

1. Mufasa - Betrayed Leader

• Current Market Price: $14.99
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +34.9%

All hail the king! Mufasa - Betrayed Leader has become a key way of battling the Ruby/Amethyst metagame. He is a threat while on the board and after being banished, and as players figure out way of playing more and more "non-characters" in their decks and understand that it is ok he may miss slightly at times, he will see even more play. The Legendaries overall in Rise of the Floodborn are pretty bad, so it is good to see a second one break through.

2. Cogsworth – Grandfather Clock

• Current Market Price: $1.98
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +21.2%

"Big Cogs" continues to rise in value, being prominently in the same second place Sapphire/Steel deck I mentioned above. With the emergence of Steel as a top color in the metagame, its impact can countered by Cogsworth - Grandfather Clock.

Steel remains popular in the metagame, so Big Cogs remains its biggest nightmare!

Biggest Price Drop from Rise of the Floodborn

Sleepy's Flute

• Current Market Price: $1.34
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -59%

Sleepy's Flute is just suffering from the massive explosion its price had following Pax Unplugged. Combined with the reprints flooding the market, players are simply realizing that Rares in this set simply cannot have the massive value they were driven to. Also, the Flute is in direct competition with Mufasa, who may just be a more consistent answer to the meta?

Cards to look out for in Rise of the Floodborn

Bibbidi Bobbidi Boo

• Current Market Price: $1.15
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +27.8%

This was my call last week for card on the rise, and that was before Ursula - Deceiver was revealed. Now, she gives you another key target for BBB going into next set, and considering so little of the set has been revealed, we are likely just getting started!

Conclusion

Ruby Amethyst remains the dominating force in the metagame, but the card staples in that list have already risen to levels that cannot go much higher. Players are instead looking for answer strategies, and that is currently centering around Sapphire/Steel and Mufassa/X (usually Ruby or Steel). There are a series of (sure to be..) large online events over the next month, so if anything else breaks out, the market may take a slight uptick before "Into the Inklands" lands on February 23!