Disney Lorcana Finance Report – January 6, 2024

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly
2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close $1 or more. Cards under $2 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $2 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. They actually see play).
3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
4. Prices for both sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the massive supply increases with reprints.  Both Big Box Stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and Local Game Stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

Check out our new Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Biggest Risers (Percentage Wise) in The First Chapter this week

1. Ursula – Power Hungry

• Current Market Price: $8.77
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +72.91%

Ursula - Power Hungry is proving to be a key weapon in Amethyst’s arsenal. I mentioned her last week as a card to look out for, and here she is! Ursula has emerged as the best last game threat the color has and a key win condition for current Ruby-Amethyst control builds.

This eight willpower monster has risen to prominence once again in the latest metagame and a staple in Steel-Amethyst decks as well. She is just a nightmare for Steel decks to deal with, which are very popular right now in the metagame. Ursula was a surprise hit of The First Chapter in that metagame, and continues to dominate top tables in this one.

Disney Lorcana Meta Report: Rise of the Floodborn – Week 6

2. Let It Go

• Current Market Price: $2.30
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +42.59%

If Sapphire is to ever see play (likely within some Pawpsicle based shell...), Let is Go will always be a staple in any version of it. Since it is an inkable Song, Let It Go really has very little downside, and I cannot see any Sapphire deck playing less than two of it in any build. It is just too “free” to get a Dragon Fire type effect, both in the deck building and play sense.

It is not without its downside, but you cannot argue with the tempo play of Let It Go! I talked about the power of Songs this week and Let It Go is Sapphire best reason to pair with those Amber Singers.

Power of Songs: Why Amber Decks Will Always Be Relevant

Biggest Price Drop from The First Chapter

Grab Your Sword

• Current Market Price: $3.11
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -14.24%

The overall trajectory of Grab Your Sword is positive, it simply has its ebbs and flows. This is likely due to restocking Starter Decks of The First Chapter, as you can find a copy of it in the Sapphire-Steel deck. Most players will not buy an entire starter deck just to get one card, but this does put more Grab Your Swords into the overall market.

It may also be factor that players already have their playsets of this powerful card, so it had a momentary dip, but I see Grab Your Sword as a staple you need a playset of for the foreseeable future.

Cards to look out for in The First Chapter

Belle - Strange but Special

• Current Market Price:                     $16.63
• 7 Day Percentage Change:            +16.56%

Belle - Strange but Special is a key win condition in Sapphire-Steel lists I am starting to see emerge to combat other Steel based decks in the metagame. Currently any near mint copy of her is selling above this market value, meaning her value has to rise. Any verified sellers with higher ratings (who I suggest you order from, always) are easily $2-3 above this market value.

Ariel – Spectacular Singer

• Current Market Price:                     $3.24
• 7 Day Percentage Change:            +16.13%

Ariel - Spectacular Singer is another staple in the metagame who is selling well above her market price by verified sellers. I think as more collectors and new players enter the world of Lorcana, these staple Princess cards will rise in value overall, and have very high sales velocity to support it. These Princess cards are Blue Chip stocks of Lorcana, and if you hit the right time of the reprint cycle, they will just continue to sell above market value.

Biggest Risers (Percentage Wise) in Rise of the Floodborn

1. Flynn Rider – His Own Biggest Fan

• Current Market Price: $1.46
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +35.29%

Flynn Rider - His Own Biggest Fan is a key win condition in the Emerald-Steel discard deck that has emerged to fight against the Ruby-Amethyst control decks. He is selling well above this market value when he is in stock, telling me that savvy players see this deck as a continued contender in the metagame, potentially finding a way of dealing with opposing Steel lists.

Since Flynn is in Emerald, the main color of any discard strategy, if the deck shifts away from Steel (see next card maybe?), Flynn will still be the payoff for the other Emerald discard engine cards in the deck: Prince John - Greediest of All and Bucky - Squirrel Squeak Tutor.

2. Cogsworth – Grandfather Clock

• Current Market Price: $1.13
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +29.29%

From Zero to Hero! No, not the card, but “Big Cogs” here was on the biggest price drop list last week, to a top spot this week!  With the emergence of Steel as a top color in the metagame, its impact can countered by Cogsworth - Grandfather Clock.

So, I still think if Sapphire is to have any success in this metagame it will flow through Big Cogs (outside or including popular Pawpsicle lines). This can be in any form of Sapphire list, aggro, Discard, but even control builds can benefit from this universal Resist 1.

Biggest Price Drop from Rise of the Floodborn

Grand Pabbie – Oldest and Wisest

• Current Market Price: $0.70
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -21.98%

Grand Pabbie - Oldest and Wisest simply has not grabbed the spotlight as any type of win condition, even slotted aside Pawpsicle and Hiram Flaversham - Toymaker. Although he is selling slightly above his recent market price, I cannot see Grand Pabbie having another price spike, unless someone finds a way of making him into a consistent win condition. It is too difficult for the average player to hold these effects for a big payoff turn later, and his uninkable status really puts pressure on your hand as you wait to play him out.

Cards to look out for in Rise of the Floodborn

Bibbidi Bobbidi Boo

• Current Market Price: $0.81
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +36.11%

Lucifer – Cunning Cat

• Current Market Price: $0.89
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +16.47%

These two cards really go hand in hand, as Lucifer - Cunning Cat is ironically often the target of Bibbidi Bobbidi Boo. BBB also has other powerful targets, namely anything with a “when you play this character” ability and was in my early lists for best card in the set. The uninkable nature of it has held it down to this point, but I am finally seeing discard strategies understand that you need this two card combo to really put the nail in your opponent’s coffin!

By next week I can easily see the market price on these two cards being well above $1, and I can tell you from first hand experience, I sell out of them constantly!

Conclusion

As of the time of writing this (the afternoon of January 5, 2024) there are two large events in the Lorcana world this weekend: a Star City Game Con in Cincinnati and an online event hosted on Pixelborn. The results of these events are sure to shape up and potentially shake up the metagame for January, and this will have dramatic effects on the singles market over the next week.

From a pure entertainment to a market perspective, be sure and keep a close eye on the results of these events!