Disney Lorcana Finance Report – January 1, 2024

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week.
2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of over $2. Cards under $2 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts. I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
3. Prices for both sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the massive supply increases with reprints. Both Big Box Stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and Local Game Stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
4. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

Biggest Risers (Percentage Wise) in The First Chapter this week

1. Maui - Hero to All

• Current Market Price: $5.93
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +70.22%

Maui is one of the premium cards from The First Chapter and a staple in both Ruby-Amethyst (the most popular and strongest deck in the metagme) and Ruby-Amber. His value has remained consistently high throughout the First Chapter metagame, and nothing has come close to power creeping him out from Rise of the Floodborn. He is a consistent source of on-board card advantage and a staple in any deck using Ruby.

2. Maleficent - Biding Her Time

• Current Market Price: $3.40
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +55.81%

Maleficent – Biding her Time is a key piece of the most aggressive deck in the metagame (Amber – Amethyst) and a key one drop option in the best color in the game, Amethyst. She is always an early threat, and if the meta continues to move away from early game damage based removal, to instead relying on mid game board clearing options, this little Lore engine may see more varied use in the future

Biggest Price Drop from The First Chapter

Lilo - Making a Wish

• Current Market Price: $2.82
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -14.43%

It is interesting to see Lilo take such a hit when Maleficent – Biding her Time is essentially the same card in a more played color. I think the key is that Lilo only shows up in one archetype nowadays (the aforementioned Amber – Amethyst aggro deck) and has no potential to show up in decks like Amber-Steel nowadays. I also think she suffers from having SUCH a high value early on: she was over $20 at one point as a Rare!

Cards to look out for in The First Chapter

Fishbone Quill

• Current Market Price: $2.64
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +44.94%

Fishbone Quill is a staple in any Sapphire deck and forms the basis of that ink color’s draw power through Hiram Flaversham - Toymaker and ramp win conditions like Belle - Strange but Special.

Ursula - Power Hungry

• Current Market Price: $6.49
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +32.45%

Ursula – Power Hungry has regained her place among the Amethyst win conditions of choice, in any deck using Amethyst, but especially in the latest versions of Ruby-Amethyst.  She instantly replaces herself, quests for three lore, and even sings Be Prepared. She offers a lot as a late game value engine who seems hard to compete with given her range of abilities. 

Biggest Risers (Percentage Wise) in Rise of the Floodborn

1. Madam Mim - Fox

• Current Market Price: $4.07
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +25.08%

Rise of the Floodborn staples overall had a much slower week than The First Chapter, with the highest gaining card a fraction of Maui above. Madam Mim – Fox, however remains the top gainer, which is shocking considering she is in one of the starter decks.  This is likely the reason you pay such a premium for her in foil (about 3x normal price).  She is another testament to the power of Amethyst in the current metagame, and she is part of the quartet of cards that put the ink color over the top (Fox, Goat, Snake, Rabbit).  

2. Alice – Growing Girl

• Current Market Price: $10.22
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +22.25%

Alice – Growing Girl seems to be a factor of really just “how low can she actually go?” I have not seen any deck in the current metagame top cut an even using Alice, but considering that decks are moving towards non- permanent stat abilities like Challenger to supplement their high willpowers, there may be room for Alice’s team level support to turn high willpower, low initial starting strength characters into challenging machines.  Maybe someone has cracked the code on Alice? Even if they have not, they see an opportunity to pick her up after her low earlier in the month.  

Biggest Price Drop from Rise of the Floodborn

Cogsworth – Grandfather Clock

• Current Market Price: $1.00
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -43.43%

Cogsworth – Grandfather Clock is under the $2 threshold, but sadly last week he was above it.  Sapphire is just massively unrepresented in the metagame, and while Cogs on the surface is a great card, he just has no home.  I have talked in the past about the lack of power at the higher end rarities for Rise of the Floodborn and that seems to have finally caught up to some of the under represented Super Rares.  The supply of the second set of Lorcana widely outpaces its current demand amongst current players and you can find boxes well below MSRP if you know where to look, and Cogs is suffering from that dip.

Cards to look out for in Rise of the Floodborn

Beast – Tragic Hero

• Current Market Price: $42.16
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +20.22%

Beast – Tragic Hero is the best card in the set, and finally a staple in any deck using Steel.  His power level is finally fully understood, and while his price tag is the biggest in the set (and at times in the game), there is no limit on the demand for him.  Keep in mind, his Shift 3 is not even used, so if Into the Inklands gives us a lower cost Beast that is playable, look out!

Snow White – Well Wisher

• Current Market Price: $7.45
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +10.37%

Snow White – Wellwisher is seeing an uptick in play as a substitute for Hades - Lord of the Underworld. She already has a good shift target in Snow White - Lost in the Forest, and since she is a Disney Princess and a “flagship character,” I expect to see more versions of her in the future.  I just think she is too cheap right now, and should easily command a $10 price tag.

Conclusion

Singles prices are still seeking out an equilibrium after the early December shocks of the massive reprints hitting stores shelves.  It is good to see such high percentage gains in many cards from The First Chapter, which tells me several new players are entering the game after getting their feet wet with Christmas presents. Hopefully that trend will continue into the new year, and the Organized Play announcements from Ravensburger are right around the corner, which should see even more eyes on Lorcana!