Disney Lorcana Market Watch: Week of April 29

Each week, we will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell in price the most on the secondary market in Disney Lorcana.

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

  1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
  2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
  3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
  4. Prices for the two most recently released sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the supply increases with reprints.  Both big box stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and local game stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
  5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

News of the Week Affecting Lorcana Finance

Prices continue to be low as a wave of Lorcana entered the market thought Set Championships, including the highly desirable The First Chapter. All four of the Set Championships I attended had boxes of all three sets for sale in varying prices: some as high as $190 a box, but at least they had them right?! As a result, several new sellers have extra stock to "race to the bottom" on TCG Player and larger sellers are flush with inventory. Will these prices continue to be low? I doubt it, as reprints do not seem to be on the docket any time soon, and if i had to guess we would not see new boxes hit shelves until the next round of Set Championships at the earliest.

Surprisingly box prices on The First Chapter have only dropped around $`10, to around $230 verified, but I expect those to rise in the coming weeks.

We are also knee deep in Reveal Season for Ursula's Return, as official sites and content creators are revealing cards this week. We only have about a quarter of the set revealed so far, but some older cards that interact with those revealed are spiking in price. You can follow along with the reveals right here.

As Set Champs closed last week, we start the grind to the first Lorcana Challenges. As they are not public entry, chances are the secondary market will not be affected by them until after they are over. That being said, I would pay attention to any larger events leading up to Atlanta as there may be temporary spikes in prices if any new decks are discovered this late in the Into the Inklands metagame. Since Chicago will be the first major event featuring Ursula's Return, I expect that set's prices to start high (as usual) but stay high for that event!

Check out our Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in The First Chapter

Rapunzel - Gifted with Healing

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  • Current Market Price: $30.89
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -`1.8%

What's funny about the current market prices is while tournament staples all seem to be lower this week, the "trash" is all up in price. I guess people are trying to finish sets? Scoop up good deals on low priced items to finish off sets? Who knows. As a result, many cards are down in value this week, but Rapunzel was basically flat. This card remains the premier card draw in Amber, which seems to be coming in with high expectations during reveal season. If you do not already have a playset of this Lorcana staple, pick them up at these low prices!

Here is an example of a Set Championship winning Rapunzel list, but she is really the best Amber card in the game!

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Biggest Price Drop from The First Chapter

Fishbone Quill

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  • Current Market Price: $3.05
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -74.8%

The velocity on this card is still through the roof, and for any verified seller you are paying more, period. Players who are cracking boxes to find certain Legendaries or Foils they want have to try and make back money on the other cards, so there is a race to the bottom on rare staples. Nothing has been revealed to replace the flexibility and power of this item, and in fact there are ways of enhancing its use, so I do not expect this price to stay this low!

Cards to look out for in The First Chapter

Ariel - Spectacular Singer

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  • Current Market Price: $2.23
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -13.5%

First, you cannot actually find a playset of this card from any one verified seller for less than $4 each, so again this market price is deceiving. Ariel continues to be a centerpiece card and the "Sing Together" mechanic from Ursula's Return makes her stand out even more. This is before you even factor in the new Shift Ariel coming out in Ariel - Sonic Warrior, who fits right on curve. Oh, the new Shift Ursula also needs a song to Shift for free? Good thing we have this Spectacular Singer! If you can find her for under $3 and do not mind using multiple sellers, I would be picking her up!

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in Rise of the Floodborn

Mulan - Reflecting

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  • Current Market Price: $0.52
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +36.5%

This is a pure speculation play, as players want to live the dream of Mulan singing the new "Sing Together" songs for free. It requires set up, but there are so many ways to manipulate the top of your deck (the best being The Boss Is on a Roll but you have also Jafar - Lamp Thief and others as well) before this Mulan quests to get you so much ink value, it is insane! Is she worth it for full cost? Will we get any decent Mulans to Shift her onto (especially in Amber/Amethyst)? We will see...

Biggest Price Drop from Rise of the Floodborn

Arthur - Wizard's Apprentice

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  • Current Market Price: $1.31
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -37.4%

Is Arthur's time as a premier aggro card over? Will he be able to make a comeback? I doubt it. He is simply too slow for the current format, let alone the next one. I think this card just has too much price memory to ever really dip below $1, but I would not be a buyer.

Cards to look out for in Rise of the Floodborn

Madam Mim - Purple Dragon

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  • Current Market Price: $3.66
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: 1`.4%

Look, I am not a fan of this card, but I cannot argue with results. She is showing up in multiple high-finishing Set Championship decks in small numbers. Any Legendary from Rise of the Floodborn that sees play has the potential to rise in value because of how little of this set is being cracked by dealers nowadays. I think she has room to reach or go above the $5 mark, as she may see more use in the Atlanta Challenge.

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in Into the Inklands

Ursula - Deceiver of All

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  • Current Market Price: $41.04
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +21%

Other cards may have risen higher, percentage wise, but that is simply because Ursula was so high in price before this semi-buyout. Again the "Sing Together" mechanic rears its head and Ursula doing double duty on these powerful options will be game changing. Now, you just need to find a way of getting the rest of the cost taken care of and have her survive, but if you can, she is game winning. Can she reach the $50 mark post new set release when less Into the Inklands is being opened? Probably.

Similar to Ariel - Spectacular Singer, there will always be new songs and new song mechanics, so this Legendary Ursula will always have a place. If they ever get around to printing her correctly as "Dreamborn" and, that actually matters, these old ones will rise as well!

Biggest Price Drop from Into the Inklands

Pongo - Determined Father

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  • Current Market Price: $0.17
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -29.4%

Inklands has not been hit as hard as the other sets, but the fact that this is in the starter decks is having a negative effect on its price. Also, it is hard to find his use outside of Mufasa - Betrayed Leader style decks, so unless they become the meta dominating force, something has to give. I love this card personally, and I think if we see more top of deck manipulation or a need for it, Pongo can have his place and be a Good Boy once again!

Cards to look out for in Into the Inklands

Kida - Protector of Atlantis

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  • Current Market Price: $5.50
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +12%

Even only seeing a quarter of Ursula's Return, this Legendary Kida is already a key cog for two cards to work their best: Under the Sea and Brawl. The combo with Under the Sea can be game wining as a one-sided Be Prepared while your singers stay in play.

Beyond the new set, Kida is seeing more play in aggressive decks as a way of keeping your characters around for a full turn cycle. Players are starting to buy her out, and I can see her hitting close to $10 when the new set drops and the Chicago Challenge hits!

Conclusion

Extra supply of boxes is continuing to have a huge negative effect on the market prices. I am loving the Ursula's Return reveal season thinking up uses for old cards and getting excited for the new ones. We already have two new twists on existing card types, with Sing Together Songs and alternative Shift costs, and we are just getting started!

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AUStarwars

Scott Landis is a 30-year Trading Card Game professional, and former writer for the World of Warcraft TCG and Transformers TCG among others.  Currently he is an owner of The Forbidden Mountain, a Lorcana YouTube Page and TCG player Store. You can follow them on YouTube and please use their TCGplayer Store (same cost as the marketplace). You can also find them on Facebook and Twitter.

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