Disney Lorcana Market Watch: Week of March 31

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
4. Prices for both sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the massive supply increases with reprints.  Both big box stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and local game stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

News of the Week affecting Lorcana Finance

The biggest news of the week was around the Challenge Series. Both the Atlanta and Nice Challenge events sold out in less than one minute! This led to many fans finding themselves unable to attend the events and spewing a lot of misguided hate and assumptions about potential attendance online (mostly aimed at the Ravensburger team). As a result, Ravensburger is working hard to potentially increase the size of these existing events, and definitely raise the amount of potential attendees at future events. As they figure that out, ticket sales for future events (like Chicago) have been moved back (there is a temporary April 7 go live date right now for tickets). I believe they aim to add more players to these events, honestly raising them to levels I did not think our game would achieve.

So all of this obvious hype, combined with the upcoming Set Championships with their insanely high value Stitch-based prize pools, has been very good for Lorcana sales velocity. How has it affected prices? Well, the staples are up, and the cream has risen to the top! Let's take a look!

Check out our new Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in The First Chapter

Tamatoa - So Shiny!

• Current Market Price: $3.90
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +43.8%

A former "Card to look out for", everyone's favorite recursion Crab is showing up as the centerpiece win condition of Ruby-Sapphire lists combined with Lucky Dime. He is not showing up quite as often in Sapphire-Steel, but the potential is there! It is not often you get a win condition combo that actually protects the other half of the combo, but Tamatoa allows you to get back discarded or banished Dimes to continue to wreck havoc in future turns. He is also really hard for Steel decks to even deal with, so oftentimes you are able to quest with him to activate his ability twice or more in a game!

Eric Schiro dominated the Cerberus Den $1k last week with Ruby-Sapphire featuring our favorite giant crab :

Biggest Price Drop from The First Chapter

Genie - On the Job

• Current Market Price: $1.11
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -38.7%

Emerald-Amethyst is still an aggressive contender in the metagame, but the six drop uninkable Genie is rapidly falling out of successful lists. His mid-to-late game impact simply is not there, and you do not want such a giant uninkable clogging up your hand so often. Too many characters are used for their "enters play" abilities, and bouncing them back to hand can be a boon as often as a setback.

Cards to look out for in The First Chapter

Ariel - Spectacular Singer

• Current Market Price: $3.47
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +2.9%

You really cannot find any quantity on Ariel for less than $5 on TCGPlayer. She has always been one of the best cards in the first set, and a clear staple in any metagame. Featured prominently in Amber-Steel, I only see Ariel's stock rapidly rising when Ariel - Sonic Warrior lands in Ursula's Return. There will always be more songs to sing, and you will need ways to find them. Ariel excels at both, so players will always need a playset of my favorite Little Mermaid!

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in Rise of the Floodborn

Sleepy's Flute

• Current Market Price: $1.10
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +40.9%

Zan Syed dominated an $8k in Atlanta, going undefeated throughout the event with Amber-Steel Flutes. This card fluctuates in value so often, but when it's hot, its hard to keep in stock! Sleepy's Flute gives the already powerful Amber-Steel deck a much easier way to close out games, essentially exerting for one free Lore per Flute, per turn. The main thing to look out for is Flute's can be victims of their own success, with more Benja - Guardian of the Dragon Gem becoming staples in Steel lists (to combat Flutes and Dimes).

Biggest Price Drop from Rise of the Floodborn

Sisu - Divine Water Dragon

• Current Market Price: $2.89
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -30.8%

Sisu seems like such a value engine on paper, but when you are being outclassed and pushed aside by Gramma Tala- Keeper of Ancient Stories as a $.05 common, you have a long hill to climb (fly?) up! Unfortunately SIsu is just a trash Legendary with a lot of room to improve.

Cards to look out for in Rise of the Floodborn

Pete - Bad Guy

• Current Market Price: $0.41
• 7 Day Percentage Change: 29.3%

Players are really trying to push the boundaries on what Emerald can do in this metagame, and when you are starting with the "Ursula package" on turns two and three, it is possible to close out game in-color with Pete. A natural combo with Ursula - Deceiver of All, Pete threatens to close out games quickly as a potential four lore character with Ward. His strength boost also helps with Locations, which Emerald can struggle dealing with. A solid body and effect on an inkable five drop win condition is hard to find, and I see Pete becoming a viable finishing option!

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in Into the Inklands

Lyle Tiberius Rourke - Cunning Mercenary

• Current Market Price: $0.44
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +43.2%

I do not normally talk about cards this low in value, but I did not feel like saying again "hey, hope you picked up your copies of Robin Hood - Champion of Sherwood because he rose another 10% this week." Lyle is proving to be a decent tech option for Emerald decks that want to race and, given that he is a Super Rare (of which there just are not that many strong ones in Into the Inklands), I believe Lyle has more room to grow. If he actually sees competitive play in the coming weeks, I anticipate him being closer to the $0.75 to even $1 range!

Biggest Price Drop from Into the Inklands

Pride Lands - Pride Rock

• Current Market Price: $0.53
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -35.8%

Prices across the board on Into the Inklands are down (but I can tell you from first hand experience the sales velocity is NOT!). If you are not a staple in a deck, and at this point not even really being tested as a viable "maybe", your price is sinking even lower. Pride Lands had some potential (and dumb infinite combos that were only ever going to happen at slow, kitchen tables) but it quickly faded. The jury is still out on Locations overall, but so far Pride Lands, is not a stand out one.

Cards to look out for in Into the Inklands

The Bare Necessities

• Current Market Price: $1.45
• 7 Day Percentage Change: 6.2%

I think The Bare Necessities has a lot of room to rise as this season moves on. Amber has shown it has two viable decks, paired with Steel or Ruby, and anytime it shows up in other lists for testing, this cheap, efficient, inkable song is a big reason why. The most valuable Rares in this set are eclipsing the $3-4 mark, and I see this card reaching those heights even as the set cools off a bit!

Lorecast Announcement Recap – March 20, 2024

Conclusion

Organized Play continue to drive market prices, and as local stores continue to schedule their Set Championships, demand for staple cards continues to be on the rise. I will fully admit that at every possible turn I have personally doubted the popularity of Disney Lorcana... well, no longer. Players want to play this game at all levels, and the economy is being driven by casual and competitive players alike. This week may have started out frustrating for some, but for me, I only see our future as beyond bright!