Disney Lorcana Finance Report: Market Watch – February 11, 2024

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
4. Prices for both sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the massive supply increases with reprints.  Both big box stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and local game stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

Check out our new Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Before we dive into the cards that moved the most this week I want to take a minute to talk about a hot topic in the Lorcana Finance World: Promos. Recently the prices on various promos, from League Kit promos to convention exclusives, has skyrocketed in price. This is mostly due to the fact that what was perceived as a vast supply of these cards has rapidly dried up. For example, the Rise of the Floodborn promos that were given out at Pax Unplugged were stated to be the promos for the entire run of the second set. In the end, however, there were only two conventions that Ravensburger attended (one in the USA, one in the EU). So what became "set long promos" evaporated into the reality that we are mere weeks away from Into the Inklands and there are no more conventions in sight where these even CAN be given out.

So, like most promos, these were selling for "fair" prices after the events, but then dipped down once the initial wave was over. As things settled, however, people realized the opportunity to get more of these promos is now non-existent, so any new collectors drove the prices up. I give this example (and the same pattern holds true for the First Chapter Musketeers, League promos, etc.) to let players know that these promos hold value.

I highly doubt there is going to be another D23-like frenzy for any of these, but if these patterns hold true, the less opportunities to get these promos, the longer you can sit on them and watch them rise in value. So when official Organized Play comes around and the first "Store Championship" level events are giving out Promo Stitch Rock Star (who is arguably more playable than any promo released so far) know that you are standing to win a very sought-after prize!

Biggest Risers (Percentage Wise) in The First Chapter this week

1. Lefou - Instigator

• Current Market Price: $0.75
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +25.3%

Lefou - Instigator has recently been a key cog in aggressive version of Amethyst/Ruby. He is even showing up in some control lists as well, as a way of keeping your high value characters ready and safe from challenges. Lefou saw a lot of play in the start of the recent meta, but fell off in favor of more controlling cards. Nowadays, however, the way to combat Amethyst/Ruby is to not allow their powerful Rush characters to get any value, so Lefou really helps out that goal (along with Evasives). Lefou is just too powerful and efficient at what he does, and I can see him continuing to rise as the meta closes out.

2. Lantern

• Current Market Price: $1.70
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +19.4%

Lantern still sees a ton of play in Amber/Steel and Amber/Ruby lists. With increased item synergy cards taking shape with Into the Inklands, players seem to be speculating that the First Chapter standout may see some renewed time in the metagame. I am a bit skeptical. I think Lantern's time has come and gone and, even though it is on the rise, I would stay out of that upward movement.

Biggest Price Drop from The First Chapter

Stitch - Carefree Surfer

• Current Market Price: $12.78
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -30%

I guess Mufasa - Betrayed Leader decks are just out of favor nowadays. Even the most popular and successful one (Amber/Emerald) does not always run our favorite surfing alien! Sure, the more mid range Amber/Ruby lists will not leave home without Stitch, but he just does not seem to have a consistent home in the current metagame.

Cards to look out for in The First Chapter

Captain Hook - Thinking a Happy Thought

• Current Market Price: $0.51
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +25.5%

The Floodborn Captain Hook saw play during the First Chapter in some Amber/Steel lists, but I think his time to return is in the Into the Inklands metagame. He is a Captain to pair on curve with the newly revealed Mr. Smee - Clumsy Sailor, who is quite above the curve. His ability to not be challenged by characters that cost three or less, along with his Challenger +3, makes him a massive threat to locations, as he will not be exposed to many returning challenges. I see the Floodborn Captain Hook rising in value and well worth the valuable uninkable slot.

Biggest Risers (Percentage Wise) in Rise of the Floodborn

1. Peter Pan's Shadow - Not Sewn On

• Current Market Price: $0.60
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +25%

Step 1: Read this Article, Step 2: Follow the Cards to Look out For, Step 3: Profit, Step 4: Rinse and Repeat!

Pan's Shadow was all over SCGCon Hartford, showing up in numerous Top Eight lists on the weekend. This is a card that can only get better, as being able to have your Rush characters protected when challenging Locations will be very important next metagame. I believe this card is poised to continue to rise in value, as you are hard pressed to find any sellers with him at or close to the current market price.

2. Hercules - Divine Hero

• Current Market Price: $1.13
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +29.2%

Another call from this article, read it and profit! Hercules - Divine Hero continues to define Steel decks, showing up in both Amber/Steel and even Emerald/Steel discard. The highest finishing discard deck on day one (the first $1k) ran Hercules to complement the other Floodborns, and when I faced him in the $5k, that card did work! I think Hercules still has room to climb, and if you can get your hands on the Enchanted versions, I would grab them before they skyrocket!

Biggest Price Drop from Rise of the Floodborn

Cogsworth - Grandfather Clock

• Current Market Price: $1.58
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -55.7%

Big Cogs had a nice run! Sapphire/Steel may do well in online events, but has yet to make any dent in paper Lorcana. I do not think you can ever count out any Floodborn with Ward and a universal buff effect, however, and if you do not already have a playset of Cogs, I would look to pick him up as he is dropping! He is a solid card, and thus far Sapphire has seen some powerful reveals in the next set.

Cards to look out for in Rise of the Floodborn

Scar - Vicious Cheater

• Current Market Price: $6.53
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -7.0%

If Peter Pan's Shadow - Not Sewn On is on the rise, just sort the Lorcana app by "Rush" and you will find Scar at the top of the ink costs. With Be Prepared potentially being a liability against Locations, you will need a card that simulates that effect with more flexibility. Enter, Scar. I think diversified threats ask for varied answers, and while I do not think Scar will replace the powerful board sweeper, he can only assist in keeping the board clear..and he sticks around to Quest or cause more mayhem!

Conclusion

We are in the thick of reveal season for Into the Inklands and it is a great time to speculate on how former set cards will rise and fall as a result of 204 new cards entering the meta. February is full of big live events and players still need those highly sought-after cards. The next few weeks should be very fun in the Lorcana Finance world, and I am looking forward to following it!