Table of Contents
- Biggest Risers (Percentage Wise) in The First Chapter this week
- Biggest Price Drop from The First Chapter
- Cards to look out for in The First Chapter
- Biggest Risers (Percentage Wise) in Rise of the Floodborn
- Biggest Price Drop from Rise of the Floodborn
- Cards to look out for in Rise of the Floodborn
Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.
A few rules up front:
- Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
- I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close $1 or more. Cards under $2 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $2 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
- I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
- Prices for both sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the massive supply increases with reprints. Both big box stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and local game stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
- This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.
Biggest Risers (Percentage Wise) in The First Chapter this week
1. Fishbone Quill
- Current Market Price: $4.48
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +28.4%
From bridesmaid to the bride this week, Fishbone Quill is the highest percentage gain over the past seven days.
Sapphire/Steel remains popular after it took second place in the large online event a couple of weeks ago. As a reminder, here is the decklist from that event:
The card that makes the deck work so efficiently is Fishbone Quill. A couple of weeks removed from that event, and later in the season, I am seeing this deck (or variations of it) pop up everywhere at locals. Many players shied away from Sapphire throughout the season, and if they have not been playing since The First Chapter metagame, chances are they simply do not own the card.
In fairness, the velocity on Fishbone Quill has always been huge: there is rarely a time I have any inventory in them beyond a few days, but recently the card's success is driving that velocity through the roof!
2. Stitch - Carefree Surfer
- Current Market Price: $16.26
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +23.4%
This was my card to look out for last week, because I saw a rise in the popularity of Mufasa - Betrayed Leader lists both online and in person. Normally when I am seeing a lot of online videos pumping up a deck archetype, you only have to look for the Legendaries in it to find a card on the move. Especially in The First Chapter, where boxes are becoming more scarce recently!
001-021 also shows up in more traditional Amber/Steel decks, whether they include Sleepy's Flute or not, and one had a very strong showing last week in a warm up event to another large online tournament (held this weekend, as I am writing this)
As I said last week, unless we see improved card draw for the mid-game come from Amber, and what we are seeing now the "flood the board" Amber strategies will be improved, Stitch - Carefree Surfer should remain the go-to win condition for these types of decks.
Biggest Price Drop from The First Chapter
Lilo - Making A Wish
- Current Market Price: $2.75
- 7 Day Percentage Change: -16.4%
Last week's biggest mover could only go down right? While Lilo - Making a Wish is seeing more play, especially in variants of Amber/Steel featuring Tiana - Celebrating Princess, her universal use as a card continues to dwindle. Given the amount of decks I see her in currently and her impressive stat line, this may be her low point overall. But if decks get away from Stitch - Rock Star based variants, her stock could go even lower.
Cards to look out for in The First Chapter
Let It Go
- Current Market Price: $3.29
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +19.5%
Let It Go remains an anchor card for Sapphire and conveniently gets around the "when Banished" condition on Mufasa - Betrayed Leader. This card has always been very popular, with incredible sales velocity, but the fact that it has additional use in combatting a major threat in the metagame beyond being "Dragon Fire you can sing, but give them an ink" is key. I also believe that when Locations come into the game from Into the Inklands, you are going to need to deal with diversified threats, and any removal that is also a Song goes way up in value, allowing you to deal with different types of cards in the same turn.
Biggest Risers (Percentage Wise) in Rise of the Floodborn
1. Mufasa - Betrayed Leader
- Current Market Price: $21.04
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +26.8%
What can I say? Sometimes, the rich get richer! For two weeks in a row now, Mufasa - Betrayed Leader has topped the chart for Rise of the Floodborn, and is only the second card in the set to break the $20 price point. There are only 89 listings for him on TCGplayer currently, and while this may sound like a lot, verified sellers are a smaller portion of that, so getting a playset from one trusted seller is close to impossible. Can he go higher? Can he rival Beast - Tragic Hero? Clearly that is the hope of current feline investors, but we will have to see if he can stay in the top spot for three weeks in a row!
2. Bibbidi Bobbidi Boo
- Current Market Price: $1.21
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +24%
It took a couple of weeks for Bibbidi Bobbidi Boo to move from my "Cards to Look out for" to a top spot, but we got there! It is now seeing play in the Amber/Emerald Mufasa lists and with the reveal of Ursula - Deceiver its stock goes up more. I hope this powerful song can find more homes as the metagame has a month to go before Into the Inklands drops, but I see the powerful effect having a long-term place in the metagame, so pick up a playset before you can Blink! (see what I did there..)
Biggest Price Drop from Rise of the Floodborn
- Current Market Price: $1.06
- 7 Day Percentage Change: -33%
I guess Sleepy's Flute just flew too close to the sun and only had more room to go down. This is despite it continuing to hold a key place in the metagame. I think the discussion around which version of Amber/Steel is best is being fought out at tables everywhere, and this week the Flute is losing out. Essentially, as Mufasa goes up in price, the Flute goes down, as they are diametrically opposed.
Cards to look out for in Rise of the Floodborn
Hercules - Divine Hero
- Current Market Price: $.52
- 7 Day Percentage Change: -9.6%
I know he is under $1 market wise, but you actually cannot find a playset of 002-181 for purchase under $1. Realistically, the market price will be rising next week by a large percentage, so it is almost cheating to call this card on the rise. I talked about this card in my "Six Tech Cards to Consider in the Current Metagame" article and I encourage you to read my review of him there to understand why I think he is poised to become a highly sought after Rare out of RotF!
This week's Organized Play announcements, along with finding less The First Chapter out there in the wild for under MSRP, has contributed to an overall uptick in the Lorcana market this week. Organized Play from Ravensburger is sure to bring more players into the game in general, and they will drive up the prices on the staples. When we have full details on OP in March, unless more of the first two sets drops with Into the Inklands, I expect prices to rise across the board. We still have a solid month in the RotF metagame, so there is still room for cards to fluctuate in value.. Keep an eye on the various events out there (scour your Socials, our own at the Forbidden Mountain are always updated with the latest meta news!) and you can get a leg up on the financial competition!