Disney Lorcana Market Watch: September 2

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more (or I think can reach that price). Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing. Note that prices on foil staple cards are very high (for example, you can probably get close to $100 for a Beast - Tragic Hero!).
4. As there are now five sets for Disney Lorcana, I will be taking a look at the market as a whole, not just cards per set, and only the cards that rose (not fell) and my predictions for the next week.
5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

News of the Week Affecting Lorcana Finance

Welcome back loyal readers! I am back from the very exciting DLC Toronto, and the settling down of the new Lorcana release to bring you this week in the happenings of our favorite TCG!

Shimmering Skies big box release has come and gone, and as such we can finally settle into the normal pricing cycles for the new set: card prices will rise and fall due to the perceived value of the cards in tournament play. Although the main breakout events for the new set will not occur until later in the month, with DLC Las Vegas and DLC Birmingham, the Sunday side events from DLC Toronto, as well as some third party events, are showing us an early metagame featuring Shimmering Skies. I must say, it does not disappoint!

Many existing decks have been upgraded by the new set, with some holdouts like Ruby-Amethyst enjoyers continuing to see success with few to no upgrades (although some are utilizing the new cards to powerful extent). Many new archetypes are emerging as well, but due to the lack of any supported online client, the sets true discoveries will be ongoing. This makes for an exciting time to pay attention to any all tournament information you can find to try and spike a card before the community at large tries to copy decks that have a modicum of success!

Whenever any new set releases there is always an uptick in sales overall for Lorcana. That being said, I do not think some cards temporarily bumping in value not related to anything other than "the public being aware of a reason to buy Lorcana" can hold sustained value. I would expect some of these non-tournament viable cards to reduce in value as supply matches to meet this inflated demand. That being said, some older cards may have a viable reason for rising in value and I will point that out if I think it is relevant!

Check out our Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Lorcana's Biggest Risers

Banzai - Gluttonous Predator

• Current Market Price: $0.35
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +25.7%

Banzai is a unique "vanilla" character, given that he has no actual abilities other than having great stats! The metagame is shifting more towards board control over purely card advantage, and it is hard to argue with a 3/2/2 when questing, challenging, or defending. Despite his uninkable nature, this unique stat line has him well positioned in the new meta, especially if we see a decreased amount of Steel decks in the meta! He is already selling for closer to $0.50 and if he has a breakout, he is an easy buyout target.

Rafiki - Mystical Fighter

• Current Market Price: $1.06
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +35.8%

Many times an old staple returns to deal with a new threat. The new boogeyman of the meta is Daisy Duck - Donald's Date and Rafiki rises to the challenge to present a turn one threat that can almost tussle with her, with a little help. Amethyst has cards to help Rafiki and forms the basis of dealing with most of her other friends, as well as presenting a very good Shift target for the Madam Mim package in the early to mid-game.

I think new popular archetypes like Amethyst Sapphire find themselves relying on Rafiki and he is very good in concert with Cogsworth - Illuminary Watchman. Here is an example of one route you may see players gravitating towards:

Mother Gothel - Unwavering Schemer

• Current Market Price: $0.68
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +20.6%

This card is on the rise and you will not find a playset from one seller for less than $1.90 currently! I really believe this will be the "Madame Medusa" of the set, as a good value engine with mid to late game staying power that may be a staple in certain lists. She has powerful Shift lines, and if she was not already rising in value, would have been my first pick for "cards you should be on the look out for" in my next session! Get your playset before Las Vegas!

Elsa - The Fifth Spirit

• Current Market Price: $3.89
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +19.3%

I am almost completely sold out of this card, with it listed at over 150% of the current market price! She is quickly becoming a staple card in both Ruby-Amethyst (in really any Amethyst build) and this card just does so much! She is a huge anti-Diablo answer and represents a reusable, hard-to-deal-with threat in the mid to late game!

Clarabelle - Light on Her Hooves

• Current Market Price: $35.14
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +6.1%

The meteoric rise of Clarabelle really occurred just after the big box release, which is shocking for a card to go UP when there is seemingly more of it in the supply chain! Clarabelle is very much proving her worth as a key card draw engine in Emerald lists, and I think her breakout time as a tournament staple is rapidly approaching! She easily sells at $10 above this value currently, and she is clearly the most expensive Legendary in a set chock full of value!

Elsa - Spirit of Winter 

• Current Market Price: $11.49
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +13.8%

If you are keeping score at home, she was my number one "card to look out for" in my last Market Watch, as well as a key part of the "pre-Shimmering Skies" look at cards. Unsurprisingly, she is seeing vastly increased play, and I think her usage will continue, as she is paired with Elsa - The Fifth Spirit as mentioned above!

Cards to look out for in Lorcana

Ursula - Sea Witch Queen

• Current Market Price: $6.74
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +7.4%

I actually think the Set Championship version of this card stands to gain the most from her usage, with that card currently selling at just under $100. She is seeing play in Emerald Amethyst builds, and she can completely shut down Amber Steel, currently the default most popular deck seeing play in the metagame. Amethyst exerting ready characters in order to be challenged is really picking up steam, and if that deck can answer the aggressive metagame, it may be a serious contender! This Ursula will be a force to be reckoned with those answers!

Morph - Space Goo

• Current Market Price: $1.34
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +14.9%

If you can find them still cheap due to the overprinting of this set, I would pick up this key Shift target. I am seeing a lot of Emerald late game Shift targets see play (see above section for a few of them!) and Morph represents a huge threat for opponents as early as turn 3. We have finally reached a critical mass of Shift lines across the curve, and Morph is a key player in those lists!

Hades - Infernal Schemer

• Current Market Price: $8.84
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +2.9%

Pete - Games Referee is proving to be a huge player in this early new metagame, so we need to find non-action based removal answers. This is where Hades comes into play for Sapphire decks, who otherwise need to rely on action answers (oftentimes in other colors as well). Combined with other character threats like Maleficent, I see these original "big bad" types returning to the spotlight in the coming months; similar to another staple in...

Tinker Bell - Giant Fairy

• Current Market Price: $11.89
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +4.2%

Look, good cards only get better and Giant Tink has a lot of new tools to help her shine! Realistically we need an influx of players for her to really break out, as First Chapter boxes are no longer selling for astronomical prices. That being said, I think she is a solid long term investment, because when we get more details on the rest of 2024 organized play season, and especially the 2025 and beyond, Lorcana may be taking on a lot of other games' converts!

Conclusion

Shimmering Skies is all the rage, and older cards are spiking in value to meet the demand of new archetypes. Keep an eye on tournament information out there, and expect the double whammy of DLCs Las Vegas and Birmingham to have a dramatic impact on the Lorcana financial world!