Table of Contents
Introduction
It may be early in the lifecycle of Shimmering Skies but cards are already on the rise. There is initial knowledge to be gained from the current week one market.
In addition to being a player and writer, I am also a Lorcana singles dealer with a thriving TCG Player Pro Store. For the past few sets, after a lot of relationship establishment and a calmed down overall product market, I secured the ability to have a ton of product available at LGS Launch. This gives me a unique perspective on not only what singles are initially hot in new sets, but the ones that seem to have the most sales velocity.
What is sales velocity? Velocity is arguably the most important metric you need as a retail supplier. Simply put, it's the speed at which your product sells in a given store, typically measured in units per store per week. When the set first launches, as long as you are not well above the perceived market value, pretty much all of the higher rarity cards will sell out if you have the inventory stock. This is because many players choose NOT to buy sealed product, but instead simply build their own playsets through singles dealers. This does not mean that all singles are created equal, however,
Some new singles are clearly selling out at a rapid rate, and I personally cannot replenish them fast enough. They also are the cards that frequently have less than two full pages of sales on TCG Player at any one time, indicating all dealers are selling out (even those with lower inventories and ratings (unlike myself 🙂 ). That to me is an indicator of things to come, and what the hottest cards in the set seem to be on launch. Will their prices and velocity stay high? I am sure that once the big box release occurs the supply will tank prices by 15-20% at minimum, but if the current velocity is any indication, they will still be highly sought after!
Daisy Duck - Donald's Date
Daisy Duck will be the defining card of the next metagame and right now she is simply impossible to keep in stock. It is so great to see a Super Rare be the most sought after card in the set thus far and a shudder to think what her price tag would be if she was Legendary. What makes her so good? Well, she is not simply a one-archetype card: yes she shines in Amber-x aggressive decks (spearheaded by the popular Amethyst pairing in various media), but she is also present in decks like Amber-Steel that exist to combat her on the aggressive side. When you have a card that is a multi-deck superstar, you have a card that constantly rises in value, and I can tell you does not stay in stock.
I do not see her dropping in velocity any time soon and while the big box release in two weeks may increase her supply, I do not think her price will change all that significantly.
Price and velocity wise, Naveen has lived up to expectations! The main issue I see potentially causing huge swings in his price is the number of decks he can see play in. Right now he seems heavily relegated to Amber-Steel, and his role there is extremely powerful. The issue is currently that is only one list, and oftentimes not even as a full playset. I think once players find his use in other color pairs (Sapphire, Ruby, even Emerald potentially) I think you will see him climb even higher in value.
Clarabelle - Light on Her Hooves
This card has jumped in prices over the last few days, going from the low teens to mid-$30s! I am not sure if this is just a speculative buyout, but Clarabelle was vastly underrated at set launch, and is helped out by many cards in this set. Her smaller versions Clarabelle - Clumsy Guest and Clarabelle - Contented Wallflower are both extremely playable and the card draw offered from this Floodborn mitigates a lot of the "downside" of cards like Daisy Duck - Donald's Date and You're Welcome. I think this card will decrease a bit after big box release, as having another high value Legendary leads to price wars, but if she shows up prominently at DLC Las Vegas, she could spike again.
Chicha - Dedicated Mother
I bet you thought the first Sapphire card I would mention would be Mufasa - Ruler of Pride Rock but his value is currently at about $5 off his high, and being a large uninkable makes his deck space limited. Chicha, however, seems to be one of the Sapphire winners of the set, and a card that was initially under $1, is impossible to keep in stock if she is under $4 right now. Chicha sets up really nicely for any Sapphire based ramp deck, and seems to be a key cog in the wheel for maintaining cards in hand from early game hand-ramp.
Pete - Games Referee
Uncommons need love too! This version of Pete moves for well above the normal floor for an uncommon and seems to have found a home in both Amber-Steel and Amethyst-Steel lists. If he can find a place in even more decks, he could climb even higher!
Amethyst Chromicon
Another breakout uncommon, Amethyst Chromicon is finding a home in almost every Amethyst deck, with potential for it to even see play in control versions! If testing proves this can see play in concert with cards like the aforementioned Clarabelle, I think you will see this uncommon selling for more than its current 2-3x normal uncommon floor as it does currently.
The Library - A Gift for Belle
The last standout uncommon is arguably the best location in the game! The obvious synergies with Chernabog's Followers and the one cost Magic Broom really give you some serious card advantage. The eight willpower means you really have to dedicate challenges to dealing with it, and the fact that it has one passive Lore a turn means this cards comes with its own built in inevitability. This is currently a very highly priced uncommon, and it would not surprise me if post-Vegas it reaches the $1.75-2 mark!
Madam Mim - Elephant
Having a second Super Rare that has this type of velocity says great things about the long-term health of this set! I thought this Mim was just a card that players needed to flesh out their sets, but the fact that she has climbed to a $7 price tag is impressive and shows real staying power for this card. We need to see how she performs in Vegas and other events, but the combo of her with Cogsworth - Illuminary Watchman adds a solid body to the board and handles opposing exerted characters while proccing her secondary ability! I see this Mim continuing to show promise in the coming weeks.
Conclusion
Shimmering Skies seems to be a very powerful set and players are buying singles instead of (or, I guess, in addition to) sealed product. In the coming weeks we will have a better sense of the standout cards, but for now it is important to look at sales velocity as an indicator of potential growth, over prices alone.
