Disney Lorcana Market Watch: Week of April 7

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
4. Prices for both sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the massive supply increases with reprints.  Both big box stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and local game stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

News of the Week Affecting Lorcana Finance

The biggest news of the week was around the Challenge Series. The Atlanta series was raised in maximum attendance to 2048 players (?!) and Nice was raised as well. Future Challenge events will be 1024 players MINIMUM (likely much more given the Atlanta size and demand) and there will be additional Challenges added as well, TBD. The prizes for these events will also scale with the maximum attendance, so while there may be more of the promos "in the wild" the demand for these will be great, so I do not think it will cause that much downside pressure on the market. I will cover these just before and after the Atlanta Challenge!

Disney Lorcana Challenge – Player Cap Increased to 2048!

The other news is the vastly increased prices on The First Chapter boxes and singles, given the length of time since a reprint. However, stores are receiving notice of the ability to order a set number of cases of all three sets if they are hosting Set Championships in April. I feel this will have a temporary decrease on prices of singles in the wild, but only temporary, as the amount being released (and the fact they will likely still sell for close to MSRP) will not be hoarded by individual stores/players, so the massive amount of demand will not be able to be satisfied by the selling community. The number of sellers of some Legendaries from The First Chapter is unlikely to be increased by that much, and if it does, it will only be temporary.

Check out our new Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in The First Chapter

Maleficent - Monstrous Dragon

• Current Market Price: $46.15
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +16.3%

Technically a card like Mickey Mouse - Wayward Sorcerer had a better week, with a 37% increase, but a rise in raw price of over $7 is just more impressive to talk about (and it had the second highest rise notable anyway!). Maleficent remains the premier high drop in Ruby-Amethyst, Ruby-Amber, and Ruby-Sapphire to deal with really any character-based threat. As a premier Legendary in a short printed set, the Dragon has not flirted with this price point since the early low printing days of Lorcana.

I could have really chosen any high performing Ruby based deck to show off the Dragon in action, but I have a soft spot for Ruby-Amber so here is one successful tournament list with Maleficent :

Biggest Price Drop from The First Chapter

Magic Mirror

• Current Market Price: $0.33
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -33%

Honestly, if a card is not in a tournament playable deck, your price is continuing to plummet, with rares dropping harder than the other rarities. This is especially true of cards that were once playable like Magic Mirror. The time has long since passed that drawing a card for four ink off a two cost uninkable item is a good rate, so players are dumping this former tournament staple.

Cards to look out for in The First Chapter

Belle - Strange but Special

• Current Market Price: $22.96
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +5.1%

Given she is a part of the win condition in both Sapphire-Steel and potentially Ruby-Sapphire, I can only see Belle's value rising as we approach Set Championships. She should be highlighting the "tier 2 Legendaries" being just behind both the aforementioned Maleficent - Monstrous Dragon and Rapunzel - Gifted with Healing. As an inkable ramp/finisher in these decks, Belle has earned her place as generally a two of, with the ability to quickly end games off the back of a late Lucky Dime and questing!

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in Rise of the Floodborn

The Sorcerer's Spellbook

• Current Market Price: $1.71
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +26.9%

It was neck and neck between The Sorcerer's Spellbook and Strength of a Raging Fire but in the end this powerful finisher in the still-remaining most played deck in Ruby-Amethyst won out. I can tell you that it is impossible to keep either in stock, as the playable rares and above in Rise of the Floodborn are few and far between! This card has a ceiling, as it is not really a four of in any list, though it does show up in Emerald-Amethyst, Amethyst-Sapphire, Amethyst-Amber, and Amethyst-Steel aggro lists as well.

Here is an interesting take on Amethyst-Steel that recently finished in the top cut of the large Pixelborn event:

Biggest Price Drop from Rise of the Floodborn

Bibbidi Bobbidi Boo

• Current Market Price: $0.66
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -19.7%

I think people have yet to truly crack the code on this powerful song, and while it is great in combination with Usula - Deceiver of All, especially with cards like Lucifer - Cunning Cat, it has just not proven to be a deck staple. Deck standouts is where money flows to, and while this effect is powerful, it is not ubiquitous in the metagame.

Cards to look out for in Rise of the Floodborn

Cinderella - Stouthearted

• Current Market Price: $3.62
• 7 Day Percentage Change: 11.9%

Amber-Steel's finisher of choice! She is just very difficult for non-Ruby decks to handle, being immune to most removal in the format. Playing her for five is very easy, considering how often you want Cinderella - Ballroom Sensation to be in play early on. If Steel continues to dominate the metagame, the color has its own answer built in with the Shifted Cinderella.

Here is an example of one place you often find Cinderella in Amber-Steel:

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in Into the Inklands

Pride Lands - Pride Rock

• Current Market Price: $0.97
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +27.8%

Prices overall on Into the Inklands went higher this week, and sales velocity has continued to be very steady for this seemingly well-printed set. As i talked about in my Amber-Steel deck guide, Pride Lands is becoming a powerful two drop uninkable option in the deck, oftentimes supplanting Lantern or Sleepy's Flute. As players are finding which they like best, speculation on this Location has taken off!

Biggest Price Drop from Into the Inklands

Sheriff of Nottingham - Corrupt Official

• Current Market Price: $0.34
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -50%

Remember Week One of the metagame where there were multiple videos (my own included..) on the "unlimited combo" with the Sheriff, Beast - Relentless, and The Bayou? The market remembers, and is still punishing this card for its over value early on! This card was so over hyped early, coming close to the $5 mark early on in presales. Wow, how the overhyped have fallen!

Cards to look out for in Into the Inklands

Chernabog - Evildoer

• Current Market Price: $1.00
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +10.0%

Amber-Steel is not hurting for win conditions, but boy does our favorite villain from Fantasia really put a lot of them to shame! You are often seeing one to two copies of this giant demon being played nearly for free in the late game, and specifically when combined with Pride Lands versions that use Simba - Future King as their Prince/King of choice to hand out there. He fills up the discard pile faster and efficiently, powering out a faster Chernabog to end the game with. It is hard to keep this popular card in stock leading up to Set Championships!

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Conclusion

Organized Play and format staples are still the name of the game in Lorcana finance! As the Challenges increased in open slots, confidence in Ravensburger continuing to steer this Lorcana ship in the right direction is proving positive in the singles market. Let's keep that momentum up and we should continue to see high sales velocity in the singles market!