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Ravensberger took an unprecedented step on July 10 and announced upcoming Errata for Bucky - Squirrel Squeak Tutor that will go into effect on August 9, with the hobby release of Shimmering Skies. The most dramatic effect on the metagame will be at DLC Toronto, as it will now feature the modified Ursula's Return metagame. Note that Set Championships will not change and Bucky will still be legal in his original incarnation, but the Squirrel will not continue to keep down deck diversity in the Shimmering Skies based future.
While the changing of one card may not seem like it would have that large of an effect on a games financial ecosystem, the entire current metagame was warped by the oppressive nature of this seemingly innocuous two drop. This means many more decks held down by the current incarnation of Emerald-Steel have room to actually play the game. This widens the options available to deck builders. It is too bad this will only matter at one major event, but I can understand why it is not in effect immediately given the more casual nature of the Set Championships.
The metagame would have changed as a whole new set hits play, but this allows future metagames to also evolve without the oppressive nature of Emerald-Steel Floodborn discard.
What effect will this have on the world of Lorcana singles prices? Here are my general thoughts.
Bucky Himself
As an uncommon, the Squirrel himself will not take a major hit. Foil versions will likely increase in value, as players speculate that an updated version of him may be given out at some point. We already see the Set 2 League Promo version skyrocketing in price, currently at $15-18 each from verified sellers. Players see this as a long term investment that they can eventually say they owned an original version of the card. I really cannot dispute their logic, as cards like The First Chapter original wording foil Befuddle and even Work Together have increased value compared to their later printed counterparts.
Here is a statement on RB working on getting replacement Buckys in the hands of players:
Check out our Disney Lorcana Prices section!
Cards that Will take Hits
Diablo - Devoted Herald
- Current Market Price: $35.43
Diablo is already off his highs even at this "current" market price, but I expect panicked Emerald-Steel players to overact to this Bucky Errata and try and recoup some of the over $65 they spent on this Legendary. Diablo is still a very good card, just not insanely broken when backing up Bucky. Is he now a fair card? I would still argue he is still a top card in the game, and I think any Emerald deck will still run him.
Emerald-Steel itself will still exist, likely in forms that more resemble the versions that saw play last Set Championship season, but will be supplemented by Diablo. Several of these cards will be talked about below, but if you find Diablo to go below $30 I would be a buyer.
Remember in any market, when the masses swerve left, you have to be the one gritting your teeth and swerving right!
Flynn Rider - His Own Biggest Fan
- Current Market Price: $1.41
It's a shame, I really wanted a high priced rare from Rise of the Floodborn! Emerald-Steel will exist, but it is unlikely to consistently run opponents out of cards, and if you are not questing for 3-4 lore with Flynn each turn, he is just not effective enough to run, with reduced Floodborn synergy.
Tinker Bell - Giant Fairy/Beast - Tragic Hero/Robin Hood - Champion of Sherwood
These cards will likely go down in value, not because they are bad cards, but because they will no longer be auto includes in Emerald-Steel if it continues to survive in a new form. They no longer have the added text of “Your Opponent discards a card when they enter play,” which means they will have to be strong on their own, not supplemented in power level by simply being a Floodborn.
This trio was frequently absent from Emerald-Steel decks last season (in total, obviously the decks often contained one or more of them, but not all of them) so the lack of them being ubiquitous auto-includes in a powerful meta deck means that auto-demand for them is less. I do think their financial impact will be mitigated, but the Bucky incarnations of Emerald-Steel being 22% of the field at DLC Bochum, and usually about that or more at local Set Champs, you went from players ABSOLUTELY NEEDING all of these already expensive Legendaries, to “they are nice to have if your deck is better with them.”
One side note: it is also highly possible that these cards will be used in other decks that Bucky was keeping in check/making impossible to run. I do not really want to do “third level analysis” in this article, because by the time this errata goes into place, a whole new set will also drop, so I am sure that any drop in price in these cards would also be related to what is found in that set as well. What if there is a new 1-drop Beast or Tinker Bell introduced that these Legendaries can Shift onto for value outside of just being paired with Bucky? Well then, any temporary dip in their prices will just be based on speculation that the long term effects are going to hurt these cards is all just that: speculation.
Remember, I am not saying these cards are bad or will not see play in other archetypes, they are just not slam dunk includes for over 1/5 of the metagame, in full playsets, for every player running a certain deck.
Cards that may rise in value
Again, I am really only looking surface level here for the impacts of this errata to the decks Bucky was being played in. Since he is changing at the same time as a new set is dropping, with really only DLC Toronto being the current format without Bucky, it would be premature to assume that certain decks that are held in check by Bucky will just dominate a metagame with a whole new set added to it! As such, I want to focus on the cards within the typical Bucky archetypes only.
Cursed Merfolk - Ursula's Handiwork
- Current Market Price: $2.83
Players that still want to run the discard-based Emerald strategies are likely to turn back to the Emerald-Steel "Bucky-less" decks that were successful last season. These were more early game Merfolk/Flynn/Prince John focused, so I believe this value 2-lore character can jump back into more mainstream play.
Prince John - Greediest of All
- Current Market Price: $1.85
This card really fell off in playability as just an unnecessary piece of the puzzle. That may remain true, as you have Diablo still to refill your hand, but if you are already running Merfolk and Flynn out there, can Prince John be far behind? I do not know if this card is necessary in lists, but I think it has a chance to move up from the zero play it sees now.
Ursula - Sea Witch Queen
- Current Market Price: $7.04
Many Emerald discard players are likely to move away from Emerald-Steel (although it does seem to already have some strong Robin Hood-based synergies in Shimmering Skies) to Emerald-Amethyst. If that is the case (especially in Toronto) then the end game Ursula will find a new home. In fact, if decks like Amber-Steel start to rise as more mid-range strategies come into the meta heavily, her non-singing ability could become even more relevant. The hotness with this card is the Set Champ promo version, so as the month goes on and they decline in value, you may want to jump on some of them!
Morph - Space Goo
- Current Market Price: $1.31
Believe me, I think Bucky in his current iteration is pretty dead in the metagame, but if he has a chance, it will be backed by Morph. If pinpoint early removal comes out of decks, as dominos fall around some of the cards above, it may be time for Morph to come into his own. Of course, we will have a whole other set to worry about and Morph's ability will remain evergreen.
Conclusion
Any errata or banning of cards is sure to shake up a metagame. Any metagame shakeups is sure to effect the singles market. The difference here is this is not an immediate action, and by the time the meta would need to react, the entire format shifts with the introduction of a new set. Most of the cards affected (positively and negatively) have a potential longer term impact on the Bucky errata. These cards simply skyrocketed due to the oppressive nature of the current iteration of Emerald-Steel, but these are still great cards. Any temporary bumps in price are sure to rise back up. So look for buying opportunities in any turbulent new cycle!
