Disney Lorcana Market Watch: Week of July 22

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing. Note that prices on foil staple cards are very high (for example, you can probably get close to $100 for a Beast - Tragic Hero!).
4. As there are now four sets for Disney Lorcana, I will be taking a look at the market as a whole, not just cards per set, and only the cards that rose (not fell) and my predictions for the next week.
5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

News of the Week Affecting Lorcana Finance

The Lorcana singles market is in an odd place. We just had what we assumed to be a late in the season DLC in Fort Worth, but in reality it became a swan song for the current Ursula's Return format before the Bucky errata goes into effect with the release (but not legality) of Shimmering Skies at the next DLC in Toronto. Combined with it being the last weekend of Set Championships upcoming, the market is in a holding pattern until the next set is released.

Sure, we could extrapolate the top decks in the format for the next DLC in Toronto, given the current format minus the most popular deck, but in reality, this format will only exist for one event, so the ramifications of a new set being released is more impactful than one card receiving errata that likely takes it out of the format. The number of players impacted by one move is dwarfed by those that will experience an influx of 204 new cards.

Now can we extrapolate the results of DLC Fort Worth as a starting point of the next metagame? Sure, but that will again move the market less than a frenzy of excitement over Shimmering Skies (which I believe will be an impactful set on the metagame, probably on the level of Into the Inklands).

For reference, this is how the top 64 in Fort Worth shook out, with Ruby Amethyst taking down the event. So you would expect all the Ruby Amethyst staples to be on the rise right? Well, since that deck has existed for pretty much the entirety of Lorcana in some way shape or form, players generally already own those cards, so how much room is there to rise in value?

There is SOME movement at the higher rarities, but I believe the fact that Amber-Steel has such a strong showing at the event, with widely varying "last 15 card" lists, will have a deeper impact on the singles market.

Check out our Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Lorcana's Biggest Risers

World's Greatest Criminal Mind

• Current Market Price: $0.75
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +37.3%

A large majority of the cards going up in value this week are bulk. Overall the bulk market seems to be up about 20% on average, with rares/super rares/legendaries of low starting value rising in price. This is a good sign in an overall flat market, but most deck staples went down on the week. This leaves new ones to rise above and this inkable song has found a home in most Amber-Steel "Steelsong" lists. The amount of playable Support we are seeing in Shimmering Skies is helping this card potentially see long term play.

Cinderella - Ballroom Sensation

• Current Market Price: $3.93
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +20.4%

We need the spaceman "always has been" meme for both Steelsong and Ruby-Amethyst this week, which have been staples since The First Chapter metagame. Cinderella allows you to take over the early game, and even if you are not playing a full playset of her, she can dominate an early board backed up by powerful songs.

Here's an example of a high finishing tournament list featuring the Ballroom Sensation as a full playset!

Baloo - von Bruinwald XIII

• Current Market Price: $0.55
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +29.1%

I included this low priced card here because it is a card on the rise as well! Showing up as a playset in the second place deck from DLC Fort Worth, Baloo adds a speed element to Amber Steel that doubles up on protecting your main singers with value attached. Is this a one-hit wonder? Not sure, but further testing of him is warranted leading into Toronto and beyond!

Flynn Rider - Frenemy

• Current Market Price: $5.78
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +18%

Our first Ruby-Amethyst staple on the list! I see Flynn maintaining his high value, and in fact potentially getting more expensive, as we go into another set. We have already seen some high strength Ruby characters that combo really well with Flynn's out of questing lore generation, so I think this two drop will be a staple in Ruby-X decks for a long time!

Kida - Protector of Atlantis

• Current Market Price: $8.49
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +12.6%

One of the big breakout decks at the DLC was Amber-Emerald discard control. Bucky decks were its main predator, and with the squirrel leaving the format, there is an opportunity for it to rise in popularity and strength. Kida is key to that deck and its best home. We have already seen ways in the next set to gain lore through big questers and Kida will help keep that board under control. She is realistically a $10 card and market price will reach that point soon!

Cards to look out for in Lorcana

The Muses - Proclaimers of Heroes

• Current Market Price: $0.33
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +33.3%

I mentioned it as my #1 card to look out for last week, and you could have cleaned up in a week (assuming you have a buyer on the upside)! I think The Muses still has room to grow in value, as another staple of the aforementioned Amber-Emerald discard/control shell. Momentum may carry this card to $1 by the time the next set drops!

Golden Harp - Enchanter of the Land

• Current Market Price: $0.20
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +20%

Keeping my list the same week to week makes my life really easy! A Harp deck actually cracked the top four of DLC Fort Worth (?!) and while I did not see the card in action all that often, I can imagine it was solid all day long in that metagame. Steelsong always wants one drops even in the midgame and Harp can be one of the best if you can keep it around. If Emerald falls off at all and Ursula - Deceiver falls off with it, maybe the Harp can see even more mainstream play!

Cri-Kee - Lucky Cricket

• Current Market Price: $0.37
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -5.4%

This IS a card I saw break out at DLC Fort Worth and do a lot of work. It is solid in both Emerald-Steel and Amber-Emerald, and I feel if Emerald-Steel continues in any shape or form, it will be the backs of its low strength discard engines (Flynn, Merfolk, etc.) who will greatly benefit from the extra strength boost in a turn. Oh, it leaves behind a decent three lore body as well!

The Underworld - River Styx

• Current Market Price: $0.19
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +15.8%

Some Amber-Steel players were scared off by the number of uninkables in prior versions, some even opting to shift from Pride Lands to The Underworld. As an inkable one-lore location it is hard to argue its value, even if it is banished by Maui in one swing. That being said, if more players continue to want to attack on multiple fronts (questing, locations, Sleepy's Flute) I can see this location finding a larger home!

Conclusion

Shimmering Skies should be fully spoiled within the next two weeks, and we can really get down to preparing the metagame of DLC Las Vegas. The DLCs in between will likely not move the needle, as they are single event formats we are playing in because of the Bucky errata. Stay tuned to our set 5 page as cards are revealed and I will see you next week as we wrap up Set Champs!