Disney Lorcana Finance Report: Market Watch – February 17, 2024

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community. A few rules up front:

1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
4. Prices for both sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the massive supply increases with reprints.  Both big box stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and local game stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

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Before we dive into the cards that moved the most this week I want to mention that I will diving much deeper into the finance of Into the Inklands this week, but up front this looks like an amazing set from a finance perspective. It is very refreshing to have so many playable and powerful Legendary cards upon launch (unlike Rise of the Floodborn that had maybe a total of three Legendaries playable throughout its entire run, and only one when the set launched!). Multiple Legendaries will form the basis of the decks in the format, so I expect cards like the Floodborn Tala and Jafar to be north of $30 when the set launches, and keep that value for weeks.

There will also be a ton of high value Rares in the set, as many of them seem to be the glue that holds many decks together. Songs like The Bare Necessities, Items like The Lamp, and characters like John Silver - Greedy Treasure Seeker are only a few cards I am seeing having a key effect on the metagame from day one.

Oh, did I mention that there are eighteen Enchanteds? Oh, and you can find boxes for under MSRP weeks before big box release? We are entering new territory, and I will bring it all to you this week!

Biggest Risers (Percentage Wise) in The First Chapter this week

1. A Whole New World

• Current Market Price: $11.99
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +36%

Well this was going to be my "card to look out for" but apparently the cat is out of the bag! A Whole New World forms the card drawing engine/win condition for multiple hypothetical decks in the format. Decks based around Gramma Tala - Spirit of the Ocean or Jafar - Striking Illusionist both want the hand refill to keep pace. An example of acting fast when you see cards revealed and how they may affect older card values..a 36% gain in a week is massive!

Here is an example of a potential deck you can test with:

2. Captain Hook - Thinking a Happy Thought

• Current Market Price: $0.51
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +25.5%

My call from last week on Cards to Look Out For from the First Chapter, Captain Hook - Thinking a Happy Thought is rising due to his synergy with 003-135. This Captain Hook will be a key part of the aggro-control Ruby-Steel Pirate Deck, whether you are using his Shift ability or not.

Here is an example of how you may want to start some testing with this concept:

Biggest Price Drop from The First Chapter

Mickey Mouse - Wayward Sorcerer

• Current Market Price: $0.64
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -32.8%

The brokenness of some combos assumed to be popular from Into the Inklands seems to overshadow the fair ones like Brooms. Mickey is still up over the recent weeks, especially in foil, but I think we are waiting for someone to do well with a perfected Brooms list before Mickey Mouse - Wayward Sorcerer can continue to climb in price!

Cards to look out for in The First Chapter

Jafar - Keeper of Secrets

• Current Market Price: $0.41
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +19.5%

If you watched me on a livestream this week, I honestly forgot this card even existed! Jafar - Keeper of Secrets is not only a great Shift target for the Floodborn Jafars, but also a large character on his own. This is especially true when you are playing a deck based around card drawing (are there other types?). This version of Jafar saw sporadic play in The First Chapter, but I expect him to see a ton more now. Pick him up while he is cheap, and if you like foils, grab them while they are under $2.

Biggest Risers (Percentage Wise) in Rise of the Floodborn

1. Beast - Relentless

• Current Market Price: $10.17
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +26%

One of the combo decks people are brewing up centers around the three-card combo of Beast - Relentless, Sheriff of Nottingham - Corrupt Official, and The Bayou - Mysterious Swamp. Basically you get a combo payoff that can OTK (one-turn kill) with Beast for every Willpower you can take off an opponent's character through the Sheriff damage (discard through the Bayou). You need Beast to survive a turn, and get all these cards into play, but each piece is valuable on its own, so maybe this has legs. The Legendaries in Rise of the Floodborn that have value are under five, so speculating on them is not unexpected in the market.

2. Mickey Mouse - Friendly Face

• Current Market Price: $0.46
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +13%

I was repricing Rise singles this week for my shop and was shocked to see how much more I was pricing this Super Rare Mickey. I guess people think that Pluto - Friendly Pooch can start a reduced cost train that leads to Mickey Mouse - Friendly Face? Maybe players feel Mufasa will have a big comeback early in the metagame? I wish I understood why people are speculating on this card, but I am here for any D100 gift set card rising in value!

Biggest Price Drop from Rise of the Floodborn

Shere Khan - Menacing Predator

• Current Market Price: $0.57
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -78.9%

This price drop actually made me laugh when I saw it. The uninteractable nature of the upcoming format is on clear display when a card that requires you to challenge as your win condition drops like a stone. I was never a fan of Shere Khan for exactly this reason, something I dubbed "the Rapunzel Problem" (she required challenging to work in The First Chapter metagame). I do not see this improving in the upcoming meta either.

Cards to look out for in Rise of the Floodborn

Beast - Tragic Hero

• Current Market Price: $41.45
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -4.4%

Gee Scott, you chose the most expensive card in the game (non-foil, non-enchanted, non-promo) to rise in value the most from a set that has very little value in it, what a call! The fact is that in Rise of the Floodborn a lot of the value is in the uncommon, rares, and super rares and NOT in the Legendaries. This has created a "feast or famine" situation when opening sealed product: did you get one of the four to five Legendaries with value or did you lose value on the purchase? That leads to a downward spiral where less product is opened (despite faltering prices) but players still want the most powerful cards.

Well, guess what is the most powerful Legendary in the set? Beast - Tragic Hero.

It is just simple macro-economics. Unless boxes go completely in the tank beyond the $120 mark they already are at, I just see Beast on the rise, not falling.

Conclusion

I am so excited for the financial impacts of Into the Inklands next week. Ravensburger seems to have printed enough to keep it flowing, even in a world where the details of Organized Play will be released (March...soon?). I will be back mid-week to discuss my thoughts on the early pricing of the set, but happy hunting out there!