Disney Lorcana Finance Report – Market Watch January 28, 2024

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
4. Prices for both sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the massive supply increases with reprints.  Both big box stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and local game stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

Check out our new Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Biggest Risers (Percentage Wise) in The First Chapter this week

1. Ariel - Whoseit Collector

• Current Market Price: $0.57
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +28.1%

Ariel - Whoseit Collector had a lot of hype this week as she was touted as an answer to the metagame: basically an additional finisher for Ruby/Sapphire Item decks featuring Pawpsicle and Hiram Flaversham - Toymaker. Essentially adding Ariel to decks like this:

She has not had that breakout finish yet, but various online content creators hyped her up enough to raise her price. She was pretty low to begin with, so going up this much makes her a large percentage gainer. She's below my typical threshold, but since The First Chapter cards are all up basically a baseline 10% this week, I wanted to show there were others that took off higher, and may break that $1 barrier soon!

2. Maximus - Palace Horse

• Current Market Price: $0.88
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +33.0%

I'm not really sure I have an answer on why Maximus - Palace Horse went up so much in a week. All singles from The First Chapter are going up amid fears of a lower restocking of the set currently and in the future (for the record, I do not believe this to be true, I believe with all new sets some amount of the First Chapter will be reprinted also, but we have no proof of that, so fear of that NOT happening is driving prices higher). I also believe players are trying to fit in Maximus into "Greenfasa" lists like this one:

Biggest Price Drop from The First Chapter

John Silver - Alien Pirate

• Current Market Price: $4.91
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -11.4%

Playable cards tend to show up in tournament decks, and then tend to rise in value. Unplayable cards obviously do the opposite. John Silver - Alien Pirate is a card that has always operated in the grey area. Nowadays, however, he seems to be going more towards the Dark Side than the Light and took a pretty drastic price dip this week. I anticipate as more sets come out, unless he finds a new home, he will continue to plunge.

Cards to look out for in The First Chapter

Mickey Mouse - Wayward Sorcerer

• Current Market Price: $0.64
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +35.9%

The reveal of The Sorcerer’s Tower – Wondrous Workplace has players rushing out to stock up on 001-051, especially foil versions. We could not keep him in stock this week, and being a starter deck card, we had a lot of stock! The general market can be behind the sharks when it comes to card reveals, but if the Magic Broom deck is a real thing, this popular Mickey can only go up in value, no matter his perceived supply in the market. Prices on his Foil version and Enchanted versions will also rise even faster and higher than this normal price.

Biggest Risers (Percentage Wise) in Rise of the Floodborn

1. Tiana - Celebrating Princess

• Current Market Price: $0.39
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +46.2%

Another overall low cost card, but you cannot argue with that high of a rising percentage gain. You will also be very hard pressed to find any for sale close to that market price, so it will certainly rise this week as well. She is a starter deck foil, but as players desperately try and tech out their Amber/Steel or Sapphire/Steel lists in an attempt to deal with Amethyst/Ruby, Tiana - Celebrating Princess has emerged as a viable option. We only have a few weeks to see if that is the BEST option, but to even try her out, you have to own her!

2. Hercules - Divine Hero

• Current Market Price: $0.83
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +37.4%

This was my call for card to watch last week, and honestly you cannot even find any close to the market price. In fact, once a single seller is bought out of their large stock at the $1 mark, I think the price on 002-181 will be at or close to $2 within a week. I think he is going to be a key INKABLE way that Steel can deal with Locations when Into the Inklands hits, so I see his usage actually increasing. I would have mentioned him for the second week in a row as my card from RotF to watch, because I believe he is only going to keep increasing in value!

Biggest Price Drop from Rise of the Floodborn

Winnie the Pooh - Having a Think

• Current Market Price: $0.28
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -89.3%

Another low end card with just a staggering percentage value. I am on record in various places saying how much I cannot stand this card and given the amount of Sapphire decks we have seen have success recently and none of them feature Winnie the Pooh - Having a Think I think we can agree that being a popular character on a bad card can only take you so far!

Cards to look out for in Rise of the Floodborn

Peter Pan's Shadow - Not Sewn On

• Current Market Price: $0.48
• 7 Day Percentage Change: 4.2%

Peter Pan's Shadow - Not Sewn On is already seeing play in Amethyst/Ruby decks as a way to combat the rise of Evasives, but I think its stock will rise with Into the Inklands. Rush characters are obviously a great answer to Locations, but having them exerted after dealing with them leaves them vulnerable. Well, Pan's Shadow fixes that problem for you, giving them Evasive. Time will tell if you can run more than two of this card due to its uninkable nature, but it should be a key cog in the ability for Amethyst/Ruby to survive into a Location-based world.

Conclusion

The public stock of The First Chapter continues to dwindle, but at the same time the stock of Rise of the Floodborn is at all time highs. As I said above, I do not believe we have seen the end of The First Chapter on store shelves, so do not give into panicked notions. Buy what you need, when you need it, and do not overpay for the cards you need!