Disney Lorcana Market Watch: Week of April 24

Each week, we will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell in price the most on the secondary market in Disney Lorcana.

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

  1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
  2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
  3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
  4. Prices for the two most recently released sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the supply increases with reprints.  Both big box stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and local game stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
  5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

News of the Week Affecting Lorcana Finance

Prices overall are down for Lorcana this week. This is likely due to Set Championships going on, both from the standpoint that players cannot even really order cards and expect to get them in time, and additional product is available for all sets at their LGS.

The major news in Lorcana this week revolves around Into the Inklands Set Championships (both prizes and boxes you can buy) as well as the continued reveals for Ursula's Return. Let's start with Set Championships. Now the public sees with their eyes what they should have read here weeks ago: stores that are holding Set Champs also got a hold of six to eight cases (amounts vary) of every set (if they wanted them) and most took advantage of this when it came to The First Chapter. Personally, I have been to three LGS all selling boxes at $150 (pre-tax) which was a good bargain compared to TCGPlayer pricing.

For players who opened their boxes they purchased, it has simply expanded the amount of The First Chapter singles in the market. Whether it is through purchased boxes, prize packs, or other means, most players are simply looking to recoup any money spent in any way (purchases or entry fees) so they rush to TCG Player to make unverified listings of any sellable cards. Overall, this depresses the market, but I think this will just be temporary. Set Championships have also been a huge boon for Lorcana as well, and players from other games are really starting to see the profit potential for these promo cards from Lorcana. New players means more buyers, means Supply will dry up after these boxes are gone, so prices should go back up in a few weeks.

The other major news from Set Champs is the pricing of the Enchanted Stitch - Rock Star and the playmats. Initially pricing was over $1k for a Stitch and closer to $400-500 for each playmat. Now that you can list them both on TCG Player it will be a race to the bottom, but since most sales happened in private (usually on social media) I do not expect them to go much lower than $600-700 and if you are looking to purchase them, the cheapest time to buy will be next week. The real question from there is what happens? Assuming this card is not the perennial Set Champs prize card, prices should rise on Stitch over time, especially once players start to get Graded ones back from those Grading agencies.I am not usually one to Grade cards, but for prizes like Stitch I am highly considering it.

So my assumption is right now into next week, prices will dip, but then rise over time. Remember, it may seem like there is a massive supply of them out there, as every person flashes pictures of their prizes on their socials, but the truth is (like all Lorcana) the demand far outweighs the supply. In this case we are truly dealing with a limited asset, so it can only go up in the long run.

My suggestions: if you plan to keep them as "trophies": get them Graded. If you plan to play with them, be my guest. If you plan to sell them, wait a month or two. If you plan to buy them, get them next week!

We are knee deep in reveals for Ursula's Return, with around 20 released just today (as of Wednesday April 24). During reveal season players tend to speculate on cards with obvious synergy, but you need to be careful. You need to make sure you are buying early, and selling at the height of the hype, or you'll be stuck with a lot of Beast - Relentless type cards in your binders!

Check out our new Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in The First Chapter

Belle - Strange but Special

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  • Current Market Price: $24.48
  • 7 Day Percentage Change:-5.0%

I told you the market was taking a beating after The First Chapter was "re-released" in limited quantities at stores last weekend (and this week/end) coming up! Belle was the "least loser" which is not saying much, considering nothing from that set actually appreciated in value. Not much to say, if you have these, hold them, as the combo with Lucky Dime is real, and it is game winning!

I won a local Set Championships running a modified version of this deck featuring Belle first played by Savjz on Twitch:

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Biggest Price Drop from The First Chapter

Lilo - Making a Wish

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  • Current Market Price: $1.87
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -110.7%

Remember when this was a $20 card? This is just an issue of too many sellers and not enough buyers, and given the heavy metagame emphasis on long control decks to battle the slightly slower "aggro decks" (mostly Emerald - X) there is room for Lilo to make a comeback in truly aggressive decks to battle them. I think this is mostly an over reaction to sellers trying to eek out value from their newly acquired packs and a race to the bottom on anything not super premium.

Cards to look out for in The First Chapter

Part of Your World

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  • Current Market Price: $0.20
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -15%

We have already seen some new songs and new powerful Singers from Ursula's Return and you are already seeing Amber-Steel lists nowadays run a one of this song in the current environment. I think these type of free effects will always be in vogue and if you can afford the uninkable slot (which this really does just get an ink at times) I have always liked running it. I think it will have a minor place in the future, especially in the alternate cost Shift characters recently revealed!

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in Rise of the Floodborn

Scar - Vicious Cheater

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  • Current Market Price: $8.88
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +1.1%

Again, restocks have hurt this set's market overall, but my Card to Watch from last week did increase in price. People are finally starting to take note of this sweeper that avoids answers like Ursula - Deceiver and The Bare Necessities and can also gain you Lore. I still see Scar reaching the $15 mark after the market settles, and we already see some powerful uses for him in the next set!

Again, he was featured in the deck above, but here is another version that ran Scar to glory!

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Biggest Price Drop from Rise of the Floodborn

Weight Set

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  • Current Market Price: $0.14
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -78.6%

This card is NOT good and WAS NEVER good... It is simply too much investment to draw cards in the Ink color that features a song that says "draw 7." I know each set we get excited this card is going to see more play, and each time Lucy pulls that football from underneath those players and their copium... do not be fooled.

Cards to look out for in Rise of the Floodborn

Bibbidi Bobbidi Boo

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  • Current Market Price: $.73
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -5.5%

The real answer is Scar, but I covered him above (hint: go buy him while he is still low, if you can find him that low!) so I wanted to find another card that could see some life through reveal season. Today we saw the "discard to Shift" cycle of Floodborns, and the key factor here is living in Magical Christmas Land where you can use the more expensive larger version to Shift into something with more board presence without the threat of losing more card advantage. Maybe it is a continued pipe dream, but, hey, people love to play Amber-Steel already and that is a pipe dream often as a deck is it not?

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in Into the Inklands

Cursed Merfolk - Ursula's Handiwork

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  • Current Market Price: $2.60
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +12.7%

Nailed another one! This may be the biggest gain in all of Lorcana (over a certain value) for the week! Players love playing Emerald, despite it being the color that can completely disappear from the metagame. The Merfolk have proven to be a staple in Emerald decks, as discard or aggro are the best ways to play this ink color. Most Emerald decks are well-positioned in the heavy ramp and control meta currently, and you need Merfolk to make these strategies top tier!

Biggest Price Drop from Into the Inklands

Helga Sinclair - Femme Fatale

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  • Current Market Price: $0.20
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -95%

This card just has no place in the metagame at all. I actually faced her at a Set Championship this weekend and she did some work against aggressive decks, but not against the heavy control metagame. I just do not see another more Shift-friendly Helga being in the next set, but if there is one, maybe this card can have a chance?

Cards to look out for in Into the Inklands

Madame Medusa - The Boss

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  • Current Market Price: $1.18
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -7.6%

The prices of all cards are down, but Madame Medusa - The Boss is more in vogue in a wide open field as a four-of in most Ruby control lists (and even in Ruby-Amber mid range). If you can find her at this low price, I would be picking them up, as this set is less opened so she will easily be a $3-5 staple card!

Conclusion

Extra supply of boxes is having a huge negative effect on the market prices. I believe post Set Championships as these boxes are bought up the market will recover... just in time for Ursula's Return!

AUStarwars
AUStarwars

Scott Landis is a 30-year Trading Card Game professional, and former writer for the World of Warcraft TCG and Transformers TCG among others.  Currently he is an owner of The Forbidden Mountain, a Lorcana YouTube Page and TCG player Store. You can follow them on YouTube and please use their TCGplayer Store (same cost as the marketplace). You can also find them on Facebook and Twitter.

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