Disney Lorcana Market Watch: Post DLC Chicago

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
4. Prices for the two most recently released sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the supply increases with reprints.  Both big box stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and local game stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
5. As there are now four sets for Disney Lorcana, I will be taking a look at the market as a whole, not just cards per set and only the cards that rose (not fell) and my predictions for the next week
6. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

News of the Week Affecting Lorcana Finance

I am so tired! In three scant weeks I traveled to two different cities, played in two Lorcana Challenges in two different formats, drafted Lorcana about five times, watched a Lorecast introducing a whole new set, and just generally filled my life with anything to do with Lorcana!

The Chicago DLC will act as the premier indicator of Ursula's Return metagame market predictors leading up to the Set Championships in July. June features an international DLC, but without the quick benefit of online events, the metagame will shift based on larger, in-person events. Take a look around for your favorite content creators that cover the metagame to keep up with those trends as they will have the biggest effect on market trends (I know of one 😉 )

Lorcana also announced its next set, Shimmering Skies, which is sure to massively shake up the metagame as each set has!

One of the things no one is really talking about is the strength of Ursula's Return in the marketplace. Many players assumed this was going to be a set on the weaker side of things, but several of the widely played Legendaries, Super Rares, and especially Rares have maintained a high value and more importantly a high sales velocity.

Card staples across the board are up, no matter what set they are printed in. The appeal of Challenge events for all types of players, with prizes that far outweigh the expenses to play and travel to them, is attracting a ton of competitive minded TCG players to Lorcana. Those players need cards and they flock to tournament staples!

Check out our Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Lorcana's Biggest Risers

Sisu - Emboldened Warrior

• Current Market Price: $3.82
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +52.4%

The most popular deck in the top 64 was Ruby-Sapphire. There were also strong showings by Ruby-Amethyst. The card that each of these archetypes is using out of Ursula's Return is Sisu - Emboldened Warrior. The combination with this card and Flynn Rider - Frenemy is game winning, allowing you to gain lore against ANY deck with Flynn as early as turn three, not simply against control decks. Four Willpower is massive, and oftentimes her strength can surpass this, for a true two lore (?!) threat in the early game, which persists well into the mid game.

Here is an example of Sisu showing up in a winning deck outside of Chicago using Ruby Sapphire

Hiram Flaversham - Toymaker

• Current Market Price: $3.91
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +52.4%

Hiram is arguably the best card drawer in the game, because you are oftentimes banishing an item that also drew you a card or ramped your inkwell. Hiram is the true centerpiece of any deck utilizing Sapphire, and he is an overpowered rare from an underpowered set. You can find a copy of him in one of the starter decks from Rise of the Floodborn, so if your LGS or other dealer still has the Amber-Sapphire decks around at a cheap rate, you should jump on obtaining them!

Flynn Rider - His Own Biggest Fan

• Current Market Price: $0.76
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +39.5%

When you win a DLC with a rare from a card two sets ago that synergizes amazingly with new cards, the price tends to rise! You really cannot find a playset of this card for under $1.40, and if the power level of this deck continues to rise, you could see this Flynn rise even higher!

Fishbone Quill

• Current Market Price: $9.57
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +21.3%

In my very first market report I mentioned how this card was impossible to keep in stock, no matter how much play it was seeing. Well now, it is a staple in two the four top meta decks, and I do not see its price slowing down. I believe without the set being reprinted, you can see this card hit $15 and foils for double to triple that!

Madame Medusa - The Boss

• Current Market Price: $4.26
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +22.3%

She remains the premier removal for Ruby and any Ruby-based deck should be running at least three copies of this six-cost staple. In the battle of "chair ladies", Madame Medusa has emerged as the consistent choice for deck builders, and her ability is format warping.

Cogsworth - Grandfather Clock

• Current Market Price: $3.07
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +32.6%

Can he please stay up in value for once? I feel like he should be called "Cogsworth - Yo Yo" because it seems like he rises and falls on a regular basis. I think the ability of Sapphire Steel to handle the most popular deck in the meta (Emerald Steel) is a big plus for running this card, but the number of copies should decrease as the decks that rise to deal with decks like this are heavily strength based.

Tamatoa - So Shiny

• Current Market Price: $9.82
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +28.2%

You really cannot find copies under $10, and I think this will remain the premier win condition for Sapphire-based decks. You do not even need to run superfluous things like Belle or even Ariel when you can just "jam the Crab" and Lucky Dime your way to victory! Similar to other First Chapter cards, a second rerelease of boxes to the wild for Set Champs (no knowledge of that occurring, just preaching caution) would hurt his long term value.

Cards to look out for in Lorcana

Merlin - Rabbit

• Current Market Price: $1.94
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -1%

We will finally get a Shift Merlin in Shimmering Skies and, boy, is he a house! The ability to search your deck for any card when you Shift Merlin - Intellectual Visionary means even though you are "losing" the potential card draw from the Rabbit when you Shift, the Madame Mim Bounce card can now continuously return this combo to your hand to fish for more answers. Merlin - Goat is more of a win condition, but Shifting onto a Rabbit is basically the same value. I think there is room for this combo to shine and is the first to jump on.

The Queen - Diviner

• Current Market Price: $3.70
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -20.5%

There were decks that placed high on Day One of Chicago featuring The Queen. I believe if the format can adapt to where you are getting free value from your three drop in a world of discard, the right deck mix can be found for this Legendary to see more play. Can Ruby-Sapphire run her? I know Sapphire-Steel can, and this is just the type of card to see value later in a season.

Hades - Infernal Schemer

• Current Market Price: $7.51
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -0.5%

Sapphire-Steel needed a top end answer and several decks ran this Hades as that answer. The main problem is he is still weak to Ruby builds, which are the other dominant part of the meta. Since any card can be "Quilled away" in the Sapphire builds, I think of Steel color combinations like Amethyst or Emerald may emerge as contenders. They will absolutely rely on Hades, so I would grab a set while they are low.

Be King Undisputed

• Current Market Price: $1.06
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +3.8%

I cannot believe this is only up just under 4% in the last week! This card was very popular in Ruby-Amethyst decks in Chicago (and was honestly the reason I ran Ruby-Amethyst) and I expect its value to rise. I sold out of them this week, and I expect many other dealers will as well given the low price tag!

Conclusion

This new metagame is only one major tournament old, and already it is proving more diverse than expected. We have another new set on the horizon, which already looks to be powerful and we have only seen one Legendary so far! That means reveal season should start later this month, so keep your eyes peeled as new cards bring new opportunities!