Disney Lorcana Market Watch: Week of April 14

Each week, we will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell in price the most on the secondary market in Disney Lorcana.

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

  1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
  2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
  3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
  4. Prices for the two most recently released sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the supply increases with reprints.  Both big box stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and local game stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
  5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

News of the Week Affecting Lorcana Finance

The two biggest happenings in the world of Lorcana Finance this week was the confirmed news of store's receiving the ability to reorder quantities of The First Chapter cases the same time as Set Championships (something I mentioned would have an effect on prices once it was widely understood) and the continued buyouts of Enchanted cards (especially from the First Chapter).

Prices overall on The First Chapter singles continue to rise, as its supply (especially for casual players in big box stores) is drastically reduced. While many decks do not solely rely on The First Chapter cards, every major deck does have major pieces from this set. So, you cannot simply "not own" a playset of The First Chapter if you got into Lorcana late; it is not like the last two sets have power creeped it out. That being said, if many of the stores hosting Set Championships receive the ability to order 6-8 cases each (or so I am told) and these stores resell them at close to MSRP, the secondary market will have a temporary influx of these cards, although they will not get into the hands of consumers in time for Set Champs (which is the major market driving force right now).

Enchanted Prices are rapidly rising, but I am not one to give much credence to Buyouts. Enchanted cards from the first two sets are not rising in price due to an influx of collectors to Lorcana, but instead due to obvious Buyouts by buyers attempting to raise the prices of Enchanteds across the board. If you eventually own all the supply available, you can charge what you wish. The only Enchanteds with a supply issue is surprisingly those from Into the Inklands. I always thought these were undervalued, once they upped the amount to three per ink color instead of two (18 now total vs. 12) as it became much harder to obtain the actual desired Enchanted you are looking for. The main issue here is supply: it is hard to find a plethora of verified sellers with Enchanteds in stock. It is rare to find more than 15 listings for any of the "big playable Enchanteds," and unless the above resupply adds more into the hands of verified sellers, that will amplify when the buyout buyers receive their cards in the mail.

I do not talk much about Enchanteds because they are more of collectors item or luxury item, but playability is a factor for some of them. So if you are the type of person to supremely "pimp my deck," your wallet may be in for a bad time!

Check out our new Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in The First Chapter

Belle - Strange but Special

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  • Current Market Price: $26.32
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +9.2%

Overall the market is taking a wait-and-see approach to The First Chapter this week. There is clearly a belief that these restocks will be gobbled up by resellers so the time to buy will be in a couple of weeks. That being said, my last week's "Card to Watch" in Belle - Strange but Special did live up to its hype! Belle has become a go-to finisher/ramp engine in both Sapphire-Steel and Ruby-Sapphire in combination with Lucky Dime. Some successful tournament lists have gone so far as to feature a playset of this favorite Princess! Several of the top 16 of the large Pixelborn events featured her as well, though she was more popular in Sapphire-Steel instead of Ruby variants.

This deck below is one of those lists, taking a top eight slot at the large event in Poland last weekend :

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Biggest Price Drop from The First Chapter

Captain Hook - Thinking a Happy Thought

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  • Current Market Price: $0.55
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -52.7%

Steel decks run a ton of uninkables and it is more important to have your payoffs be uninkable instead of your enablers. Robin Hood - Champion of Sherwood is just better than this card in almost every way, I thought some non-Amber Steel based decks would find some room for this Floodborn Hook, but the fact is, he is just no Champion.

Cards to look out for in The First Chapter

Maleficent - Monstrous Dragon

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  • Current Market Price: $41.46
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -10.7%

I wish it was a big stretch to say the top card in the set was going to go up more, but unfortunately the only other cards to litter the top 16 of the latest large events are the same already popular ones as well (Maui - Hero to All, Fishbone Quill, Rapunzel - Gifted with Healing, etc.). That being said, Maleficent remains the premier Legendary in the set, and if players decide they really want to run ANY Ruby based deck in the next couple of weeks, they will need to overpay for the Dragon, despite this momentary decline in price. You will NOT find copies of Maleficent from a verified seller where you can buy more than one from on TCGPlayer for less than $49, so that is a sign that it has room to grow.

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in Rise of the Floodborn

The Queen - Commanding Presence

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  • Current Market Price: $1.08
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +19.5%

In fairness, the only reason this card is not already over $2-3 is because you can find a foil version in one of the starter decks (which stores way over ordered and are usually selling very cheaply). This version of the Queen does what no other card in the game can do: Shift on turn two and get you insane value very early and very cost effectively. She is even a key way of dealing with opposing boards, with her +4/-4 ability, especially if you are staring at opposing locations. She is a key cog in the Amber-Steel deck relying on A Whole New World to maintain card parity.

Here's a recent version of Amber-Steel featuring her, but really she is a mainstay in most Amber lists nowadays:

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Biggest Price Drop from Rise of the Floodborn

Hercules - Divine Hero

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  • Current Market Price: $0.75
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -85.3%

That market price is a little low, you will be hard pressed to get a playset from a verified seller for under $1.10, but the fact is the Floodborn Hercules has seen zero play in the current metagame. I think the reason is the smaller versions of Hercules are just too expensive and non-impactful at two cost, versus Robin Hood's one cost. Another decent Floodborn to simply be worse than the Champion of Sherwood.

Cards to look out for in Rise of the Floodborn

Scar - Vicious Cheater

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  • Current Market Price: $8.41
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -4.5%

Scar is showing up in Ruby-Sapphire, Amber-Ruby, and even some Ruby-Amethyst lists nowadays. I have talked in the past about the low amount of high-impact Legendaries in Rise of the Floodborn, so seeing one increase in playability will mean that its price will have to adjust. As we get deeper into the current meta, you will see less Rise of the Floodborn opened, so less supply will be available. I can see Scar flirting with $12-13 easily if supply gets lower.

Here is an example of one place you often find Scar in Ruby-Sapphire:

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Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in Into the Inklands

Rafiki - Mystical Fighter

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  • Current Market Price: $2.18
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +25.7%

The rares from Into the Inklands continue to be very popular in the market, as it seems many players are willing to simply buy the rares they need instead of cracking packs. This one-cost Rafiki is proving to be a staple in Ruby-Amethyst as well as Emerald-Amethyst due to his ability to threaten swinging way up the curve. I can say personally I sold close to 20 of this card in a week, and he is very hard to keep in stock!

Biggest Price Drop from Into the Inklands

Chernabog - Evildoer

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  • Current Market Price: $0.62
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: -56.5%

The market giveth and taketh away I suppose. You will not find copies of this Amber finisher for less than $1 from a verified seller (the Market Price takes time to adjust) but even this is low for this Super-Rare in my opinion. If you can find him at this low price, I would be buying him!

Cards to look out for in Into the Inklands

Cursed Merfolk - Ursula's Handiwork

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  • Current Market Price: $2.57
  • 7 Day Percentage Change: +10.9%

Players love playing Emerald, despite it being the color that can completely disappear from the metagame. The Merfolk have proven to be a staple in Emerald decks, as discard or aggro are the best ways to play this ink color. Most Emerald decks are well-positioned in the heavy ramp and control meta currently, and you need Merfolk to make these strategies top tier!

Conclusion

The market has been quiet with the anticipation of Set Championships. Sales velocity has been high, but there are deals out there to garner (especially on other marketplaces, like Ebay). Cards will likely cool off as Set Champs are over in a few weeks, so if you are looking to buy, wait a few weeks!

AUStarwars
AUStarwars

Scott Landis is a 30-year Trading Card Game professional, and former writer for the World of Warcraft TCG and Transformers TCG among others.  Currently he is an owner of The Forbidden Mountain, a Lorcana YouTube Page and TCG player Store. You can follow them on YouTube and please use their TCGplayer Store (same cost as the marketplace). You can also find them on Facebook and Twitter.

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