Table of Contents
Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.
A few rules up front:
- Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
- I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
- I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
- Prices for the two most recently released sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the supply increases with reprints. Both big box stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and local game stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
- As there are now four sets for Disney Lorcana, I will be taking a look at the market as a whole, not just cards per set and only the cards that rose (not fell) and my predictions for the next week
- This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.
News of the Week Affecting Lorcana Finance
What a week! We had events in both Atlanta and Lille that probably had close to 5,000 Illumineers show up simply to play Lorcana! I cannot express how overwhelmed (in a positive way!) I was in Atlanta: to see so many players there to play Lorcana was amazing. It was the scale of an early 2000's Grand Prix level event in Magic: the Gathering, and clearly the best TCG event I have attended in a long time. Anyone who is on the fence about Lorcana succeeding as a paper, top-level TCG is simply incorrect. The number of dealers, players, side events at these Challenges was simply awesome!
Oh yeah, I did top 64 (day 2) the event in Atlanta, and I will be doing a more comprehensive look at the Finances of the Challenges (both from an overall prizing and a risk/reward/return perspective) soon. Chicago is only one week away (crazy!) and I hope this hype train can continue!
Ursula's Return also had its big box release! The distribution issues of the early sets are clearly gone, and it was great to see niche products like The Illumineer's Quest and Troves be available at big box retailers! Like any big box release, hype spikes, but eventually it cools off prices as more product is available. This is especially true with the niche products mentioned above.
The metagame is kicking into high gear with the release and Chicago around the corner, so expect results driven market swings in the next week!
Oh yeah, Pixelborn was given a death sentence of June 16 also, but I think the doomsayers around the market suffering as a result are being shown how little effect it has on that market.
Check out our Disney Lorcana Prices section!
Lorcana's Biggest Risers
Fairy Godmother - Mystic Armorer
- Current Market Price: $7.97
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +53%
When you win the largest and highest prize Lorcana event to date sporting a unique style deck in a "solved metagame" people take notice! Joshua Paultre put Fairy Godmothers on the map, and the Legendary one had an amazing week! Time will tell if this type of strategy can survive into the next metagame, but speculators are clearly hoping her value can only go up from here!
Perdita - Devoted Mother
- Current Market Price: $9.39
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +42.1%
Everything I said about Fairy Godmother is true here as well! The main problem with Perdita going forward may be her one Strength making her an easy target for cards like Brawl and various incarnations of Sisu. That being said, she does represent a serious threat and if you can drop her at opportune times when your opponent may be low on answers, she may still be a threat in any future metagame!
Mufasa - Betrayed Leader
- Current Market Price: $17.13
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +26.1%
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I am just going to add on that last weekend may have proved that Mufasa-based decks may have more legs to stand on. I have seen Amethyst, Steel, in addition to the "traditional" Ruby versions, and if the meta shifts to more controlling angles to deal with Diablo-based strategies, Mufasa may continue to make waves at all levels of the metagame!
Beast - Tragic Hero
- Current Market Price: $52.76
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +12.7%
Most of the Rise of the Floodborn Legendaries are up in price this week, maybe we are just far enough away from its time on the shelves that it is harder to find? I think the fact that "rising tides lifts all boats" with the extra Legendaries above has also helped this once "only good Legendary in the set" also rise in value. That being said, the Emerald-Steel menace of the new metagame uses Beast as a finisher arguably better than any deck in the past. Combined with Amethyst-Steel (the deck I used to a top 64 finish in Atlanta..) using this powerful draw engine, Beast has easily crossed that $50 threshold again!
Diablo - Devoted Herald
- Current Market Price: $51.70
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +4.2%
I would not be doing my job as a Lorcana Market Analyst (a made-up title for sure!) if I did not mention the highest priced card we have seen out of the gate (since the dark times of The First Chapter lack of availability of course!). Diablo is a meta-warping card, forcing players to play many cards simply to deal with him right away. He is basically "Beast - Tragic Hero light" as his ability to replace himself is unparalleled. Combining him with Bucky or Blue Fairy is simply extra value, but as an Emerald card advantage engine he is unparalleled.
The only reason he is so low on this week's list is because his price tag is so massive to begin with! I have sold this card as high as $70 and with Chicago coming up, he will likely stay at astronomical levels until answers to him are found.
Cards to look out for in Lorcana
Rapunzel - Gifted with Healing
- Current Market Price: $39.59
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +16.3%
I know, I'm really going out on a limb with this one! I think Rapunzel will be more important than ever in the new metagame, as certain color pairings (Ruby, Emerald, even Sapphire) will struggle for card draw when paired with Amber. Rapunzel will allow you to refill your hand very effectively and remains the lynchpin of Amber-based draw power. The fact that we now have a sweet non-foil promo version will assist the "normal one" in seeing a rise in price, but her unparalleled ability to flood the board with threats will remain relevant in the new metagame!
Piglet - Pooh Pirate Captain
- Current Market Price: $1.11
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +11.7%
I honestly cannot believe he is only up 11.7% this week considering he was prominently featured in BOTH the Lille and Atlanta winning decks! Maybe he suffers from "we must deal with Diablo so any two willpower or less character is worse" syndrome but I think with smart inking and playing, Piglet can remain a staple in the meta!
Cogsworth - Grandfather Clock
- Current Market Price: $1.74
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +5.7%
Sapphire-Steel is proving to be a powerful force in the meta, especially combatting Emerald-Steel. Cogsworth is a key part of that deck, keeping your characters safe from opposing Steel based removal. "Big Cogs" is so powerful, that many decks simply fold to him sticking on the table with additional threats to back him up. I mentioned earlier how Rise of the Floodborn is "rising" in price overall, so the Super Rares should benefit from that spike!
Ariel - Treasure Collector
- Current Market Price: $1.15
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +19.1%
The finisher for Sapphire-Steel, this new Ariel is replacing Belle - Strange but Special as the finisher of choice. Ward and four Willpower makes her so hard to deal with, and the obvious combo with Lucky Dime is game ending. I expect her to break the $3 ceiling easily this week, and finding playsets with her in time for Chicago will prove Challenging (see what I did there 😉 )
Flynn Rider - Frenemy
- Current Market Price: $1.90
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +14.7%
Ruby-Amethyst was still one of the most played decks in Atlanta, and if you want to adapt it to the new metagame, I see it being on the back of this new Flynn Rider. Gaining Lore outside of challenging, backed up by card draw and removal, has always been Ruby-Amethyst's strength, and Flynn adds to that attempt to battle the metagame!
Conclusion
High finishes in tournaments are proving to be the biggest factor in swinging the Lorcana singles market. The prize cards and structure of Locana Challenges, drawing in thousands of rabid Lorcana fans, is another huge factor. I did not cover a ton of Ursula's Return this week, but keep your eye on the coverage (official and on social media) for the Challenge in Chicago this upcoming week, as early on will be your best time to spike deals on any breakout cards from that set at the event. It is sure to have the biggest impression on the market in the run up to the next Set Championships!
