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Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.
A few rules up front:
- Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
- I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
- I am looking at only non-foil pricing. Note that prices on foil staple cards are very high (for example, you can probably get close to $100 for a Beast - Tragic Hero!).
- As there are now four sets for Disney Lorcana, I will be taking a look at the market as a whole, not just cards per set, and only the cards that rose (not fell) and my predictions for the next week.
- This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.
News of the Week Affecting Lorcana Finance
It's been a very quiet week in the world of Lorcana: no new cards from Shimmering Skies were shown, no major events last weekend as the Chicago hangover was still in effect, and the successors to online play in the wake of no Pixelborn has made testing more difficult and results harder to garner. That being said there is a large $10k event in Atlanta this weekend hosted by Charlie's Collectables Show that always seems to move the metagame. Of course, results from prior events were before the Challenge events were a thing, so the current break before Set Championships and July Challenges should be seen as a "ramp up" phase for the biggest Lorcana events for MOST PLAYERS of the season: the July Set Championships!
Since Set Championships are a month long, I expect sales velocity for staple cards to be steady throughout the month. Although a full map of events has not been posted yet, I expect that players will be traveling to as many events as they can attend. This season does not seem to have the hype of the first season. I expect there are two major reasons for this: Set Championships are no longer "the pinnacle of Organized Play" (just the pinnacle at a local level) and, now that it will run a month long, it has lost some of the "rush and FOMO" luster. I think the prizes will also be a bit less than the 001-P1-030, because the Ursula already has an Enchanted version, but I cannot argue with how beautiful the card appears to be!
Check out our Disney Lorcana Prices section!
Lorcana's Biggest Risers
Cogsworth - Grandfather Clock
- Current Market Price: $4.85
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +42.5%
The biggest debate in Sapphire-Steel is around whether you should be running A Whole New World or not. The second biggest debate is how many copies of this board controlling Floodborn clock you should be running. Is it 2? Is it 4? Somewhere in between? Cogsworth is a card that rises and falls seemingly every week, and the fact that he is on the rise this week (only really appearing in one meta deck) shows that players really cannot stand the Bucky/Diablo mess and are gravitating towards its natural counter.
Here is an example of a successful list running Big Cogs in Chicago:
Hydra - Deadly Serpent
- Current Market Price: $1.92
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +21.9%
I am not going to lie, in terms of cards rising in value this week, the landscape is pretty bleak. There are a ton of low-end cards rising in value, but staples have leveled off in the last seven days. I have seen copies of Hydra showing up in various off-meta decks such as Amber-Ruby and Emerald-Ruby. I suppose it is a solid answer to other aggro decks, but the format is so control heavy to combat the perceived best deck in Emerald-Steel, I am unsure what place this Legendary has in the format as such an expensive uninkable.
Flynn Rider - His Own Biggest Fan
- Current Market Price: $1.24
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +36.3%
Two weeks in a row now! Floodborn Flynn is making waves as a new staple in Emerald-Steel! When you win a DLC with a Rare card from two sets ago that synergizes amazingly well with new cards, the price tends to rise! You cannot find a playset of this card from a verified seller for under $2.50, so expect that market price to continue to rise.
I know I posted it last week, but given that Set Champs are upcoming, it is good to keep this Chicago winning deck in mind:
Fishbone Quill
- Current Market Price: $11.08
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +14.9%
The list can tend to look the same from week to week as we approach large community events and the cards are featured in multiple meta decks. Quill has finally broken the $11 mark for market price, and honestly it is hard to find a playset under $13. This card is a dominant force in the meta and I expect it to often grace this list.
Beast -Tragic Hero
- Current Market Price: $61.34
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +12.8%
The king has returned! Finally taking the top card value (non-foil, non-promo, non-enchanted) away from everyone's favorite Floodborn Bird, Beast has broken the $60 mark once again! You can comfortably play a full playset in the top deck in the meta (Emerald-Steel) and he even shows up in Sapphire-Steel lists as well. There are currently under 50 listings for this card on TCGPlayer, and to find a full playset from one dealer will cost you closer to $70 each! How high can the Beast go?!
Stitch - Carefree Surfer
- Current Market Price: $9.65
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +9.3%
Players are adapting to discard-based strategies and making sure the cards they play gain them immediate card advantage. It is hard to argue with drawing two cards and leaving a 4/8 body on the table to deal with. This card has become a must-play in Amber-Ruby and even showing up in fringe play in Amber-Steel. It is just hard to argue or substitute for this level of automatic guaranteed card advantage from your win condition!
Cards to look out for in Lorcana
Maleficent - Monstrous Dragon
- Current Market Price: $33.59
- 7 Day Percentage Change: 7.4%
Is she already expensive? Yes, but looking at the price of Beast - Tragic Hero and the value of The First Chapter boxes compared to Rise of the Floodborn, I would argue she is not high enough! There is little debate you run a playset of her in both Amber-Ruby and Ruby-Sapphire nowadays, so her demand simply has to increase for Set Champs. There are more listings for her compared to Beast, but you will not find a verified playset for under $35 each.
Sisu - Empowered Sibling
- Current Market Price: $19.93
- 7 Day Percentage Change: -0.5%
I know, I'm going out on another limb here! Sisu seemed to have taken a slight dive off its high after Ruby-Sapphire being the most represented top 64 deck in Chicago and that makes little sense to me. I think this should easily be a $25 card and it would not surprise me for it to reach higher in the next month.
Ursula - Sea Witch Queen
- Current Market Price: $9.68
- 7 Day Percentage Change: -9.5%
Right now, the Ursula's Return box openings are basically "Diablo or Bust" and I think there can be more of a "rising tides raises all ships" type of effect. An Emerald-Amethyst deck finished very high in Chicago and Ursula in all her forms was a key cog in that wheel. I do not believe she will stay under $10 if players begin to understand the power that deck can bring in the meta!
Pride Lands - Pride Rock
- Current Market Price: $0.62
- 7 Day Percentage Change: +29%
I guess I could have put this up in the biggest movers, but I truly think this card has more room to grow, and big time! The Queen's Castle - Mirror Chamber is steadily rising towards the $10 mark, so I cannot see how this card remains under $1. I think it is a key part of the Amber-Steel deck to attack on multiple fronts, and players will rapidly start to understand that in the weeks ahead!
Conclusion
The metagame continues to chug along and sales velocity on all Lorcana staples remains high. The next Set Championships are only two weeks away and as new players scramble to create their metagame gauntlets solely in paper, the market will rise to meet that demand!
