Disney Lorcana Market Watch: Week of March 17

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
4. Prices for both sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the massive supply increases with reprints.  Both big box stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and local game stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

There are two major effects on the Lorcana market this week. First, the supply of Into the Inklands from the Big Box release two weeks ago continues to depress the average price of cards across the board for that set (other sets are not affected by this, obviously). Secondly, there are major tournaments with massive prizes each week (mostly in person, but there was a major Pixelborn event this week also). The results of those events are moving specific cards up in value, while those that simply do not perform (oftentimes from events early on) are dropping in value even lower (again due to the supply above).

This week will be the first time I look at all three sets together!

Check out our new Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in The First Chapter

Maui - Hero to All

• Current Market Price: $13.43
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +37.8%

All hail the king! Maui has simply never dropped in price, and the continued dominance and playability of Amethyst/Ruby in the Into the Inklands metagame is amazing. Maui remains the best answer to Locations in any deck running Ruby, and honestly his playability is keeping them both in check and unfortunately to the fringes of competitive play. For the past couple of weeks, we have seen an uptick in the amount of Amethyst/Ruby seeing play, mostly due to its results from SCGCon Philadelphia (dominated by the Forbidden Mountain team) with multiple top eights and winning both the $1k (Friday) and $5k on Saturday. Here is George's winning deck from the $5k, of course featuring a playset of the Demigod himself!

Biggest Price Drop from The First Chapter

A Whole New World

• Current Market Price: $16.74
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -36.2%

A Whole New World is still arguably the most powerful card in Lorcana and the centerpiece glue of many decks in the current metagame. The issue here is that it is just hard for any non-Legendary to command over a $20 price tag, and this powerful Song was over $20 after the release of Into the Inklands. This is simply a factor of supply and demand and I do not expect this card to ever really dip below its $17-18 price tag from verified sellers.

Cards to look out for in The First Chapter

Tamatoa - So Shiny!

• Current Market Price: $2.39
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +26.4%

I will cover this more when I mention Lucky Dime but its best fried is the giant crab Tamatoa - So Shiny!. Some Dime lists choose to leave the crab at home, but I think the low price tag on this Super Rare gives it a lot of room to rise in price. Some cards like Maleficent - Monstrous Dragon or Fishbone Quill are also on the rise, but their starting prices are much higher to begin with. Tamatoa being under $3 is a lot more palatable for most players.

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in Rise of the Floodborn

Hiram Flaversham - Toymaker

• Current Market Price: $1.10
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +35.5%

Sapphire had an outstanding week, and Hiram is another key cog in the Lucky Dime machine! I would argue it is the most important card, but the fact that a starter deck Rare is rising in price that much, shows you just what level this card would be if those starter decks were not so overprinted in the wild! I expect Flaversham to hit the $1.50 to $2 mark, so if you can find some cheap starter decks at your LGS, you might wanna take a flier!

Biggest Price Drop from Rise of the Floodborn

World's Greatest Criminal Mind

• Current Market Price: $0.28
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -50%

Some other cards dropped this week two, but I wanted to focus on World's Greatest Criminal Mind because I think this trend is going to reverse next week. As of this writing the undefeated day one deck at the recent $8k in Georgia ran by Zan Syed was running two copies of the Song, that typically saw no play before this (as of this writing the event is still going on so the deck is not created on the site yet).

Cards to look out for in Rise of the Floodborn

Lady Tremaine - Imperious Queen

• Current Market Price: $1.67
• 7 Day Percentage Change: 7.8%

Madame Medusa - The Boss has been all the rage recently, with our favorite Floodborn stepmother often on the sidelines. Well, now that we are seeing many decks simply win off the back of one card, I think it is time for Lady Tremaine - Imperious Queen to see an increase in play (and thus price) once again! Other cards are already rising in value, so if for some reason you do not own the Lady and you can find her at or around $2, I would pick them up!

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in Into the Inklands

Lucky Dime

• Current Market Price: $7.59
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +49.4%

If you have been reading this article carefully, you knew where this was headed! Percentage wise, as of this writing, technically Rafiki - Mystical Fighter is over the 50% threshold, but the price on Lucky Dime is almost double the market price shown above from Verified sellers on TCGPlayer. Dime decks are all the rage, and you do not even need to OTK (One Turn Kill) from zero lore to make them effective. This Legendary item is proving to be a powerful way of gaining Lore outside of questing for any Sapphire deck, starring in Ruby/Sapphire and Sapphire/Steel decks this past weekend. If you grabbed them for under $10, good on you because I expect the price to double this week.

Biggest Price Drop from Into the Inklands

Sheriff of Nottingham - Corrupt Official

• Current Market Price: $0.35
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -160%

Gee, another over hyped infinite combo deck did not pan out?! It paved the way for consistent decks to take over? Shocking! It relied on keeping a character in play for a full turn then dropping multiple pieces the next turn and surviving to the mid-game? This did not pan out!? You must be kidding me!?

Cards to look out for in Into the Inklands

The Bare Necessities

• Current Market Price: $1.11
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -35.1%

Amber/Steel is back on the rise (did it ever really leave? ) and The Bare Necessities is over performing in those lists. The ability for Ariel - Spectacular Singer to find it and/or clear the way after A Whole New World from certain threats is also big. Oh, did I mention it also deals with our Lucky Dime problem? (Side Note: I do expect the Dime to double in price in the coming week...)

Conclusion

Third party high level competitive play is the norm for Disney Lorcana, and the official Organized Play announcements should be right around the corner! I expect SOME news this week on the Lorecast, but if not, the end of March is only two weeks away so we should have more details. That will drive more TCG players into the Lorcana scene, which should raise prices across the board!