Disney Lorcana Market Watch: Week of March 24

Each week, I will be taking a look at the cards that rose and fell the most in each of Disney Lorcana’s sets and potentially make some predictions based on chatter I am hearing and results I am seeing throughout the community.

A few rules up front:

1. Price changes are based on TCGplayer Market Price, updated every hour on the hour (through an API). Market price is based on the average price of card sales. I am looking at the percentage price change from 7 days ago compared to when the article is written each week. Depending on when you are reading this/article goes live, compared to when that section was written, prices may change slightly.
2. I am only looking at cards Rare or above, and with current value of close to $1 or more. Cards under $1 can have wide market swings given easy buyouts, but given the current state of supply of cards it was hard to find cards above this value for comparison given their growth trends. For cards under $1 I only included those I feel have the potential to go higher and were not simply artificially inflated (i.e. they actually see play).
3. I am looking at only non-foil pricing.
4. Prices for both sets of Lorcana are currently falling overall due to the massive supply increases with reprints.  Both big box stores (Targets, Walmarts, Best Buys, etc.) and local game stores (LGS) have received massive inflows of product, tanking box prices to below MSRP.
5. This article is for informational purposes only, you should not construe this information as financial advice.

Official Organized Play news and Set four: Ursula's Return were the biggest new items in Lorcana this week! The locations and prizes for all of the upcoming Challenge events for Lorcana have been announced with six in North America, and four in Europe. The prizes are beautiful and should fetch VERY HIGH prices on the secondary market. I plan to cover those separately, compared to existing game promos for reference, simply waiting for the reveal of that sweet serialized Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Tailors to drop first!

As reveal season kicks into high gear, as usual older cards will be affected by new reveals.

Check out our new Disney Lorcana Prices section!

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in The First Chapter

Fishbone Quill

• Current Market Price: $7.74
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +29.6%

Two decks utilizing Sapphire have emerged recently at the top of the metagame: Ruby-Sapphire and Steel-Sapphire. Fishbone Quill is a very important cog in the wheel (pun intended) of these decks as a way to get an on-board ink advantage (which comes into play ready..) at virtually no cost due to all of the card draw present in each of these decks. Blue-x is emerging as an answer to many parts of the meta, and cards like Lucky Dime allegedly help sure up the Ruby-Amethyst matchup. The Quill was always a card impossible to keep in stock at any price, and now with less The First Chapter out there, its price is rising!

Schuyler Duntz dominated the largest online event with his copy of Blue-Steel :

Biggest Price Drop from The First Chapter

Lantern

• Current Market Price: $1.32
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -21.2%

Since the Rise of the Floodborn metagame, the debate has raged on between Lantern and Sleepy's Flute as your two drop uninkable of choice. Right now, the Flute is winning, so Lantern loses out (even when it is seeing play beyond Amber-Steel and in Amber-Ruby lists..). I think this card has the potential to always rise above the $2 mark (and oftentimes does) so it is just a matter of buying/selling at the right times and meta!

Cards to look out for in The First Chapter

Tinker Bell - Giant Fairy

• Current Market Price: $10.56
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +.09%

You really cannot find any quantity on arguably the best card in the game, in one of the strongest ink colors in the game, for under $12 from a verified dealer (some have one, rarely can you find more than one). That is a "finance reason" why I expect a card to rise in value.

The main non-finance reasons are just that I cannot see how they can print cards continuously close to Tink's power level, and with Organized Play in full swing, you need a playset of the best cards, and you should start with Tinker Bell - Giant Fairy.

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in Rise of the Floodborn

Scar - Vicious Cheater

• Current Market Price: $8.34
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +30.2%

Scar is proving to be a major player as both a backup Be Prepared and as a reliable one in a world of Song hate (The Bare Necessities and Ursula - Deceiver to name a couple). He is definitely a staple in Amber-Ruby lists, and arguably becoming a staple in Ruby-Sapphire as well. Remember, most of the Rise of the Floodborn legendaries are very low in value, so adding more to the "mid range" of value is a great thing, and not surprising given Scar's use!

Biggest Price Drop from Rise of the Floodborn

Cinderella - Stouthearted

• Current Market Price: $2.73
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -33.3%

Look, I cannot argue with facts, but this price reduction makes no sense to me. I would certainly be buying any Cinderella - Stouthearted that I could find under $4, and in fact she would have made my "cards to look out for" if she was not here as part of this section. This is an example of the market price not adjusting to demand, as she is impossible to keep in stock at well above this value. I would be buying Cinderella as she brings a unique, powerful body to the field.

Cards to look out for in Rise of the Floodborn

The Queen - Commanding Presence

• Current Market Price: $0.76
• 7 Day Percentage Change: 30.3%

Decks seem to be running less inkables in them, and if that is the case, the ability to Shift as early as turn two and sing powerful songs rises in value tremendously. Zan's aggressively built Amber-Steel list from last week (below) prominently featured the one and five cost Queens and I cannot imagine that deck functioning without them. You could argue she will not have cross-deck usage, but I am not so sure as she also sees play as a "location killer" in Amber-Ruby as well. I would pick these up at less than $1.

Biggest Riser (Percentage Wise) in Into the Inklands

Robin Hood - Champion of Sherwood

• Current Market Price: $37.20
• 7 Day Percentage Change: +11.7%

The main issue with Inklands pricing is the established "norm pricing" of cards has not had the time or the need to fluctuate that much. Robin Hood is proving to be one of the strongest cards in the set, and certainly the Legendary that has the most cross-deck functionality (Amber-Steel, Sapphire-Steel, Amethyst-Steel, etc.). As the OP season starts, cards that are mega-staples can only continue to stay on top of the value curve, and Robin Hood should remain on top of Into the Inklands!

Biggest Price Drop from Into the Inklands

Morph - Space Goo

• Current Market Price: $1.88
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -33.0%

I think this is just a matter of not finding a permanent home, as I am seeing some lists run Morph. I just do not thing you "need" the Space Goo in any deck currently, but I think given lower ink curves, there are chances he will be needed in the future. I also think that so much Inklands is being opened to get the high priced Legendaries that the Rares can only go down in value, currently. As prices, level off, I expect the Goo to bounce back in value somewhat.

Cards to look out for in Into the Inklands

Ursula - Deceiver of All

• Current Market Price: $30.01
• 7 Day Percentage Change: -0.1%

Ursula is showing up in more decks, as the centerpiece of the decks she is showing up in. As prices start to settle for Into the Inklands I believe the prices for the most playable Legendaries will separate themselves from the average to below average ones. For the record, I believe the number of below average Legendaries is very low, but at the top end you will find the aforementioned Robin Hood, Ursula, and Lucky Dime, which stand above the rest. So that means Ursula and the Dime have the most room to grow, so might as well start with the Sea Witch in this week of the reveal of Ursula Returns!

Lorecast Announcement Recap – March 20, 2024

Conclusion

The Lorecast was the biggest news of the week and the market responded! If the sign ups for Atlanta are any indication, the demand for Organized Play is way more than I ever thought, and prices on singles can only rise from there!